Cattle Market Reports and Analysis
Cattle feeding margins fell deeper into the red while packer losses doubled from the prior week. Pork producer margins have now printed red every week for the past year.
Under current market conditions beef exports are expected to decrease and beef imports should increase...exactly the outcome observed thus far in 2023, says economist Derrell Peel.
Cash cattle and wholesale beef prices continued their fourth quarter retreat and record heavy carcass weights suggest cattle feeders have lost marketing leverage.
Few things in cattle market trends are entirely predictable but the fact that carcass weights peak in November is as close to a sure bet as one could identify.
Some blame the recent rout in the futures markets on LRP (Livestock Revenue Protection), a claim that is wholly unsubstantiated. A look at the data confirms LRP blame really is a smoke monster.
Declining cattle futures prices continue to pressure cash prices. The cheaper inventories are working to pad the packer’s pocket as evidenced by a few plants operating on Saturdays.
Market-ready cattle prices have rolled back $10 per cwt. since the end of October and average carcass weights have increased to all-time highs, a sign feedlots are not as current as previously expected.
There seems a belief that speculators – either too many or not quite enough – are solely responsible for driving the market one direction or another. But bashing speculators is what people do who don’t like the price.
Cattle futures markets have come under criticism lately for their volatility. A common theme is there are “too many shorts” or “too many longs.” That ignores the fundamental fact that futures markets must come in pairs.
Reported national feeder cattle volumes (auction, direct and video/internet) are up 5.6% year-over-year since Labor Day, with the majority in September which contributed to the large September feedlot placements.
Cash cattle prices decline 3% for the week as December Live Cattle futures hit a five-month low and nearby feeder futures post seven-month low.
Cash fed cattle prices have increased 4.8% during the month of November in the past five years, yet carcass cutout values have begun the month in a bit of defensive pattern.
Last week saw several feedyards pass on steady bids from packers. Cattle feeders are counting on declining numbers of Choice carcasses to bring packers back with higher bids.
Beef demand has been remarkably robust through many shocks in recent years and continues to surprise and impress despite the nervousness of the industry to the challenges facing consumers.
Cash trade was light as many cattle feeders passed on steady bids. Feeder cattle and calves traded mixed. Live and feeder futures contracts posted weekly gains.
Cattle prices were weaker on the week with volatility in the futures markets and the season’s first cold spell on the way. Wholesale beef prices traded higher seasonally.
USDA’s recent October 1, 2023, Cattle on Feed report offered a few surprising numbers. How does that report square up with previously released USDA data?
Packers were forced to add to their inventory and pushed prices $2 higher last week. The surprises in the Cattle on Feed report may offer a reason to push prices lower, yet feedyards maintain the upper hand.
For cow-calf producers, fall is often a time for preconditioning, weaning and marketing calves. While prices will likely be towards the top end this year, could you still be leaving money on the table?
Cattle feeders saw $1 to $2 gains in all regions during the week, but a struggling futures market and an unfriendly placement number in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report may drag on cash prices in the short-term.
With cattle prices strong, serious inventory issues continue as the USDA is set to release the newest cattle on feed report on Oct. 20. Here’s what experts are saying about the upcoming report and herd expansion.
Ground beef is the inexpensive alternative consumers turn to when prices rise. However, the overall decline in beef production means that ground beef supplies will be smaller and prices higher going forward.
Following a couple of weeks of steady to lower money, fed cattle prices posted advances in all regions last week.
For cattle producers across the U.S., a number of factors make the idea of herd rebuilding a bit less enticing. Experts share why the U.S. cowherd is not on the fast-track to recovery.
Although August exports of U.S. pork were steady year-over-year, beef exports were well below the large totals of August 2022, USMEF reports. Pork exports were led by Mexico and beef exports showed improvement over July.
Outside factors pressured cattle markets through most of the past week before futures and wholesale beef prices rebounded on Friday. Market fundamentals remain positive for cattle going forward.
Fall calf runs typically mean auction volumes increase and prices decrease to seasonal lows. This year is quite different with feeder cattle and calf prices sharply higher than one year ago while volumes are much lower.
The latest Cattle on Feed report puts inventories down 2.2% from last year, and up slightly from the August summer low, which was the lowest monthly on-feed total since September 2019.
Cattle futures posted fresh all-time highs on Friday, providing the lift cattle feeders needed to secure higher bids from packers. Supplies of ready cattle seem ever tightening.
America’s shrinking cow herd has generated sharp packer interest for the smaller pool of cows aggressively culled in drought regions leading to record high cutter cow carcass values.