Cattle Market Reports and Analysis
Although August exports of U.S. pork were steady year-over-year, beef exports were well below the large totals of August 2022, USMEF reports. Pork exports were led by Mexico and beef exports showed improvement over July.
Outside factors pressured cattle markets through most of the past week before futures and wholesale beef prices rebounded on Friday. Market fundamentals remain positive for cattle going forward.
Fall calf runs typically mean auction volumes increase and prices decrease to seasonal lows. This year is quite different with feeder cattle and calf prices sharply higher than one year ago while volumes are much lower.
The latest Cattle on Feed report puts inventories down 2.2% from last year, and up slightly from the August summer low, which was the lowest monthly on-feed total since September 2019.
Cattle futures posted fresh all-time highs on Friday, providing the lift cattle feeders needed to secure higher bids from packers. Supplies of ready cattle seem ever tightening.
America’s shrinking cow herd has generated sharp packer interest for the smaller pool of cows aggressively culled in drought regions leading to record high cutter cow carcass values.
Market leverage remains solidly with cattle feeders, but packers continue working their options to hold prices in check.
Live cattle trade is part of the integrated markets for beef and cattle in North America. Canada and Mexico account for 100 percent of U.S. cattle imports and 95 percent of cattle exports.
The smallest herd in 60 years creates a historic market for cattle and calves.
Cattle inventories simply are not large enough for the packer to build any market leverage. Reluctantly, packers bought cattle at steady to higher money and cowboys will seek more this week.
Cash cattle trade was sluggish as feeders and packers dig in their heels. Feeder cattle and calf prices continue marching higher even as drought sends some early-weaned calves to market.
U.S. pork exports wrapped up an excellent first half of 2023 with another strong performance in June. Although numbers are below the record pace established in 2022, June beef exports topped $900 million in value.
The most recent USDA cattle inventory reports reveal herd numbers continue to shrink, the 2023 mid-year beef cow inventory the lowest in the data set dating back to 1973. Feeder supplies will likely shrink through 2024.
Cattle feeders held firm to higher asking prices and packers continued to wave lower bids with only a few cattle trading hands. Leverage remains in the feeder’s hand as packers must begin filling Labor Day orders soon.
Disciplined hedgers protect themselves against noise and volatility – the very essence of why futures markets exist, and why smart feeders use that tool.
Packers and cattle feeders spent the week in a standoff ahead of USDA’s dual July reports that were bullish as expected, suggesting a 3% decline in cattle inventories and a 2% decline in cattle on feed inventories.
Beef cows and total mid-year inventory down 3%. Cattle on Feed July 1 totaled 11.2 million head, down 2% from July 2022.
Beef imports will continue to be supported by higher domestic beef prices and the reduction in U.S. processing beef supplies due to reduced cow slaughter.
Profit margins for cattle sold for slaughter last week declined $55 per head, according to the Sterling Profit Tracker.
Cattle feeding margins improved $43 per head last week as cash prices gained nearly $2 per cwt.
Cattle feeding margins are rapidly declining as cash cattle prices retreat from spring highs
Cattle feeding margins declined by $80 per head last week as cash prices slumped $1 to $2 per cwt.
Cattle feeding margins improved $16 per head last week as cash prices inched higher less than $1 per cwt.
Whether you’re cattle feeder or packer, ledger sheets are full of red ink.
Cattle feeding margins declined $45 per head last week, leaving average per head losses at more than $77.
Cattle feeding margins improved nearly $25 per head last week, but average per head losses remain more than $32.
The pain eased somewhat for cattle feeders last week, but losses remain more than $170 per head.
It was another ugly week for cattle feeders.
Beef packers put away the red ink last week as they turned modest profits on every animal processed. Feedyard margins, however, slipped a little further away from positive.
Cash cattle prices dipped nearly 50 cents per cwt.