Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle had a lower week last week on fund liquidation and headlines regarding new NWS cases. However, he’s not sure if the funds are done selling yet.
A case of New World Screwworm (NWS) only 52 miles from Texas was reported by USDA on Thursday making it the closest detection to the U.S. to date. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that is pressuring cattle futures.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says at least initially it looks like the cattle futures had already anticipated the negative report data with the sell off late last week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the pressure came from fund long liquidation and was continuing on Friday with significant chart damage done.
Grain and hog futures were sharply higher on Monday morning as the White House released details of the China trade framework on Sunday which includes $17 billion of ag purchases per year.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are back trading higher with their huge discount to the record cash trade. He says cash trade could get even crazier.
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade hit record levels on Thursday and helped pull futures higher Friday. Grains are trying to recover from the big wash out with crude oil this week.
Despite daily volatility, cattle markets are still driven by strong demand and tight supplies. Rising fuel costs could pressure consumers, but slow herd expansion keeps the long-term outlook bullish through the decade.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this cattle market but it fits the profile of a technical top.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs. How high can live and feeder cattle futures run?
CattleFax’s Holden Ramey says grass plus profitability equals more cattle — but ongoing drought and volatility are slowing herd rebuilding despite strong price signals.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday. However, there are also fundamental reasons for bounce.
Oklahoma State’s Peel says as U.S. cow slaughter hits historic lows, the industry is turning to international markets to fill a massive “lean deficit” and keep up with record-high consumer demand for ground beef.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says $243 was the line in the sand for the June live cattle or funds would liquidate and it held after Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona which alleviated fears of a border reopening.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures held key support on Friday and are higher Monday but can the market retest the record highs?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle plunged late week after contract highs due to fears of the border reopening to Mexican imports.
A 75-year low in U.S. inventory and restricted Mexican imports are tightening supplies. As grilling season nears, strong demand and record cash trades continue to propel the market despite geopolitical tensions.
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live cattle futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the rally late last week was impressive considering the equity markets were sharply lower on Thursday and Friday plus crude oil was higher.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the ability of the cattle market to divorce itself from the outside markets the last two sessions has been very impressive.
Cattle futures are higher early following the big rally in the equity markets says Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle and hogs are struggling Thursday with the set back in the equity markets.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were a couple of reasons the market ignored the strike and the biggest was the higher equity markets and lower crude oil
Cattle futures are higher early Friday in tandem with the bounce in the equity markets and the pull back in crude oil and the energy markets according Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek.