Market Analysis
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the placements were 11% below last year and a bullish surprise for him and the trade. However, the President’s beef plan it stifling the recovery.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the Truth Social post from President Trump that 300,000 MT of beef imports will enter the U.S. duty free over the next 90 days to lower beef prices tanked the cattle market early Friday.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle were down early Friday pricing in the plant closure news, but this time seems different regarding the long term implications for the market.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle failed at the 50% retracement levels, even with higher cash trade. So, what will it take to get through those resistance areas on the futures?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures hit resistance on the charts despite higher cash. So what will it take to get through those resistance areas?
Brad Kooima of Koomia Varilek says the lows look like they are in the cattle market, but how much more recovery does he expect?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there are signs he’s looking for yet in the cattle market to confirm the lows are in.
The reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border on Aug. 24 is expected to have a short-term impact on cattle markets, but analysts say the return of Mexican feeder cattle will not fundamentally change long-term supply.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the gap lower opening in cattle futures Monday in response to the border reopening to Mexican imports was volatile. They anticipate more to come to price in the news, even after a $25 to $30 break in the futures recently.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live cattle futures made new lows for the move Thursday before finding support and putting in key reversals.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the question is whether or not a bounce in the cattle can hold or if funds will use it to exit more of their long positions.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says everybody’s looking for the bottom in the cattle market and wants to know if it is close.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle charts look tough right now.
Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel says the cash market — not the jittery futures board — is telling the real story of a cattle industry still short on supply, even as Mexican border closures reshape long-term trade patterns.
Early Friday cattle utures tried to stage an early recovery but it was short lived as funds have been selling every rally. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says his fear is the high is in the cattle market.
Terrain’s Dave Weaber says herd expansion remains on hold heading into 2027, with feeder cattle and fed cattle prices expected to hit new highs in Q3 — even as a potential strong El Niño and the Cargill Fort Morgan lockout add fresh uncertainty to the supply picture.
Live cattle futures were lower again on Wednesday and have spent several consecutive days under the 100-day moving average. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is looking like more than a healthy correction.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says funds continue to pressure the cattle futures and he anticipates that will continue after last week’s lower weekly closes.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures were struggling early Thursday with lower cash as the packers are trying to break the market with their own inventory.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are down with a risk off day in the ag markets. End of quarter profit taking and talk of a packer bailout is also weighing on futures.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures were seeing some profit taking early Friday as they are overbought. However, futures haven’t stayed down long with the strength in the cash market.
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move early Monday but ended well off highs. So can the markets retest the highs?
Cattle futures were lower early Thursday seeing some profit taking after some technical chart breakouts this week, but also positioning ahead of the holiday.
Brad Kooima says cattle were catching some spillover selling from the news the Iran peace deal had been signed, the higher equity markets and lower crude oil futures.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market saw some pre-weekend positioning and was also trading news that a JBS beef slaughter plant in Pennsylvania was closing.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle had a lower week last week on fund liquidation and headlines regarding new NWS cases. However, he’s not sure if the funds are done selling yet.
A case of New World Screwworm (NWS) only 52 miles from Texas was reported by USDA on Thursday making it the closest detection to the U.S. to date. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that is pressuring cattle futures.