Market Analysis
Last week the live and feeder cattle futures technically looked promising says Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek, but then the market posted lower weekly closes.
Kyle Bumsted of Allendale says the market is seeing technical buying and is right up into chart resistance.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle charts are looking more friendly after last week. While grains are disappointed in the lack of details from the China trade summit.
Varilek says the slowdown in slaughter tied to ICE raids has hurt producers leverage in the cash market and it has been reflected in northern bids.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market has seen sloppy trade and profit taking with news of the Santa Teresa port opening but it isn’t new news.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while last week’s higher weekly closes send a strong signal a bottom is in place in the cattle market, he’s not ready to say funds will be piling back in to buy yet.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the presidential executive orders will not have any immediate impact on the cattle industry or the market.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market is very oversold and due for a bounce but the long term charts have been damaged.
Cattle futures were trying to bounce early Monday as both live and feeder cattle are oversold after lower weekly closes says Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek. However, he was cautious about it holding.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says after a bounce on Thursday many producers were asking if a bottom was starting to be forged but the negative stories won’t die down.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the placements were 11% below last year and a bullish surprise for him and the trade. However, the President’s beef plan it stifling the recovery.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the Truth Social post from President Trump that 300,000 MT of beef imports will enter the U.S. duty free over the next 90 days to lower beef prices tanked the cattle market early Friday.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle were down early Friday pricing in the plant closure news, but this time seems different regarding the long term implications for the market.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle failed at the 50% retracement levels, even with higher cash trade. So, what will it take to get through those resistance areas on the futures?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures hit resistance on the charts despite higher cash. So what will it take to get through those resistance areas?
Brad Kooima of Koomia Varilek says the lows look like they are in the cattle market, but how much more recovery does he expect?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there are signs he’s looking for yet in the cattle market to confirm the lows are in.
The reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border on Aug. 24 is expected to have a short-term impact on cattle markets, but analysts say the return of Mexican feeder cattle will not fundamentally change long-term supply.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the gap lower opening in cattle futures Monday in response to the border reopening to Mexican imports was volatile. They anticipate more to come to price in the news, even after a $25 to $30 break in the futures recently.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live cattle futures made new lows for the move Thursday before finding support and putting in key reversals.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the question is whether or not a bounce in the cattle can hold or if funds will use it to exit more of their long positions.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says everybody’s looking for the bottom in the cattle market and wants to know if it is close.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle charts look tough right now.
Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel says the cash market — not the jittery futures board — is telling the real story of a cattle industry still short on supply, even as Mexican border closures reshape long-term trade patterns.
Early Friday cattle utures tried to stage an early recovery but it was short lived as funds have been selling every rally. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says his fear is the high is in the cattle market.
Terrain’s Dave Weaber says herd expansion remains on hold heading into 2027, with feeder cattle and fed cattle prices expected to hit new highs in Q3 — even as a potential strong El Niño and the Cargill Fort Morgan lockout add fresh uncertainty to the supply picture.
Live cattle futures were lower again on Wednesday and have spent several consecutive days under the 100-day moving average. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is looking like more than a healthy correction.