Slow Herd Rebuilding, Expectations of Cattle On Feed Lower
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With cattle prices strong, serious inventory issues continue as the USDA is set to release the newest cattle on feed report on Oct. 20.
Last month, USDA said the cattle inventory in the nation’s largest feedlots was down 2% below last year at 11.1 million head, reports Clinton Griffiths, host of AgDay. Additionally, placements were off 5% and marketings off 6%.
Overall, 2023 has seen lower numbers each month, compared to 2022.
This month, analysts say it’s clear that the breeding herd remains smaller. Following this year's trend, fewer cattle available is feedlots is to be expected in the upcoming September report.
“There’s mixed signals, but there’s areas like the Flint Hills of Kansas, East Texas and so forth, where most producers would say that conditions haven’t changed enough to support change,” notes Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University. Meanwhile, some areas in the western part of the U.S. are in better shape than last year.
Considering USDA data is based on the national calf market, in aggregate, Tonsor says producers have not pulled the trigger on expansion yet.
Facing several headwinds, including high interest rates, herd expansion will likely proceed slowly and cautiously, adds Scott Varilek, broker with Kooima Kooima Varilek Trading Inc., with some incentive and confidence in the market needed to encourage heifer retention.
Tonsor expects rebuilding to happen over the next couple years, if there’s normal weather. Heifer retentions may be assumed in 2024 and 2025 with a larger herd and calf crop by 2026.
“It’s beginning to look like 2024 will be, at best, a year of stabilizing the beef cow inventory,” echoes Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University Extension.
Regardless, when herd rebuilding does start, it will likely be a lengthy process, Peel adds.
Read More:
Rebuilding the Herd: Experts Explain the Here and Now
Peel: The Herd Rebuilding Challenge
