As U.S. beef production tightens and retail prices hit historic highs, the American consumer’s appetite for ground beef is reaching a 20-year peak. While total beef production fell 3.6% in 2025, a surge in imports allowed per capita consumption to hold steady at 59.8 lb. — with ground beef claiming its largest share of the plate in decades.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, says, in 2025, the decrease in beef production was offset by increased net beef imports to hold total per capita beef consumption steady with the previous year.
“Per capita beef consumption for 2025 was estimated at 59.8 lb. per person,” he explains. “Total beef production thus far in 2026 is down 6.2% and is expected to be down 3% to 4% percent annually for the year with per capita beef consumption declining despite additional beef imports this year.”
A breakdown of beef consumption, Figure 1, shows that per capita supplies of ground beef increased in 2025 to the highest level since 2004. Ground beef supplies were estimated at 28.6 lb. per person, up 0.61 lb. per person. Remaining beef consumption (carcass) was estimated at 31.2 lb., down 0.44 lb. per person.
The Ground Beef Pivot: Consumers Trade Down as Prices Rise
Despite record-breaking wholesale prices, ground beef remains the “safety valve” for the American household. Data shows a shift in consumer behavior: as steaks become luxury items, shoppers are pivoting to the versatility of ground products.
Figure 2 shows that ground beef currently makes up the highest percentage of total beef consumption back to 2003 and, according to Peel, is probably at a record level in the U.S.
“Ground beef consumption has increased simultaneously with record ground beef prices,” Peel says. “This happens because ground beef is still the beef product that consumers turn to when beef prices generally rise. Since 2022, the average wholesale price across 39 beef products has been an increase of over 44%. However, wholesale ground beef prices have increased over 57% over the same period.”
The Math of the Lean Deficit: Why One Steer Needs Four Cows
Peel stresses the challenges of meeting ground beef demand are substantial. Ground beef utilizes fatty trimmings from fed cattle and lean trimmings from cull cows and other sources. He explains there are a multitude of ways to prepare ground beef mixtures but a ratio of 7 lb. of 90% lean to 1 lb. of 50% lean is representative of a common 85% lean ground beef mixture.
The math currently isn’t working in favor of domestic supply:
- Cow Slaughter Collapse: Total cow slaughter dropped 28.7% between 2022 and 2025.
- Non-Fed Production: This has resulted in a 24.8% decrease in the domestic production of lean processing beef.
- The Imbalance: One fed steer produces enough fatty trim to require the lean meat of three to four cull cows to create a marketable ground beef blend. With fewer cows entering the supply chain, the industry is facing a massive “lean deficit.”
Global Solutions: Imports Now Account for Nearly 40% of Ground Beef Trim
Not enough cow beef is available and lean supplies are routinely supplemented by imported lean.
“Over the past 20 years, an average of 25% of total trim used for ground beef has been from imported beef,” Peel says. “In 2025, imported trim accounted for an estimated 38.7% of total ground beef trim, leading to the domestic lean share of trim at the lowest level in more than 20 years — 61.3%.”
Increased imported trim in the current market is important to support the value of fatty trimmings from fed cattle, Peel emphasizes.
“Maintaining the ground beef market is critical in the current situation,” Peel summarizes. “Consumer demand for ground beef is high and the ability of beef to be competitive with other proteins depends on ground beef — and fast food demand for hamburgers, in particular.”
For the cattle industry, the message is clear: ground beef is no longer just a byproduct — it is the primary driver of beef’s competitiveness against other proteins.
