Latest News From Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University

BT_USDA_Beef_Meat_Packer_2
Slaughter Cow Market Soars Fueled by Lean Trimmings Rally

Lean beef trimmings, a key component of ground beef production, have rallied significantly, with the price of 90% lean trimmings quoted over $317 per cwt. the first week of March, an all-time record dating back to 1978.

Understanding Beef By-Product Values
Understanding Beef By-Product Values

The set of products included in total by-product values is quite varied and includes edible offals, inedible offals, meat. bone and blood meal, edible and inedible tallow, hides, and pharmaceutical products.

The Growing Role of the U.S. Feedlot Industry
The Growing Role of the U.S. Feedlot Industry

The feedlot inventory as a percentage of the total inventory has increased over time, and the declining number of feeder cattle means there are not sufficient feeder cattle to maintain feedlot inventories this year.

Peel: Record Calf Prices and More
Peel: Record Calf Prices and More

The first week in February saw 500-pound steers reach a new all-time record price in Oklahoma, supassing the mark set in November 2014.

Peel: Planned and Impulse Heifer Breeding
Peel: Planned and Impulse Heifer Breeding

Statistically, impulse heifer breeding is about 80 percent more variable than planned heifer breeding. Therefore, impulse heifer breeding plays an important role in the dynamics of cattle cycles.

U.S. Cattle Inventory Reaches 73 Year Low
U.S. Cattle Inventory Reaches 73 Year Low

The January 1, 2024, beef cow herd inventory was 28.22 million head, down 2.5 percent year over year and a decrease of 3.47 million head or 10.9 percent lower, from the cyclical peak in 2019.

raking_hay_forage_Mississippi
Plan Now to Manage 2024 Forage Costs

January may seem early to start planning grazing for the coming growing season but the ability to minimize non-grazing feed costs will depend on comprehensive grazing plans and management for the entire year.

BT_Winter_Snow_Calves
Peel: January Cattle Market Challenges

January often provides challenging cattle marketing prospects and this year offered multiple winter storms disrupting feeder and fed cattle markets, as well as boxed beef markets.

Winter Hay Supplies Higher
Winter Hay Supplies Higher

U.S. hay production in 2023 was 6.3% higher than the drought year of 2022, but remains 7.8% lower than the 10-year average. Hay stocks were higher in eight of the ten states, with decreases only in Kansas and Kentucky.

Cow-Calf Producers: Are You on Offense or Defense in 2024?
Cow-Calf Producers: Are You on Offense or Defense in 2024?

Cattle markets are encouraging more aggressive production. Individually, cattle producers may be able to respond immediately or may be forced to remain on the defensive due to physical or financial reasons. 

stockers
More Cattle Grazing Winter Wheat in Oklahoma

Although it appears producers took advantage of strong prices to market both steer and heifer calves last fall, it is possible decisions about whether heifers on wheat will be feeders or replacements have not been made.

Wrapping up Christmas Presents and Cattle Markets
Wrapping up Christmas Presents and Cattle Markets

December's Cattle on Feed showed December feedlot inventories were 102.7 percent of last year. Texas on feed number was up 4% and Kansas was up 7%.

Peel: Beef Cow Slaughter and Herd Culling
Peel: Beef Cow Slaughter and Herd Culling

The pool of bred beef heifers is likely to remain low going into 2024, keeping the prospects of beef cow herd growth minimal in the coming year.

BT_Sunset_Shipping_Cattle
Peel : Beef Trade Reacts as Expected

Under current market conditions beef exports are expected to decrease and beef imports should increase...exactly the outcome observed thus far in 2023, says economist Derrell Peel.

Feedlot Trends in Management and Productivity
Feedlot Trends in Management and Productivity

A summary of 15 years shows how feedlot production continues to develop and reflect changes in cattle genetics and feeding technology and management.

BT_Cows_Grazing_Brome
Cow and Heifer Slaughter Indicates Continued Herd Liquidation

A strong seasonal increase in beef cow slaughter suggests further reduction in the overall beef cow inventory on Jan. 1, 2024.

BT_Airplane_Feedlot
Strong Feeder Cattle Sales Boost Feedlot Numbers

A combination of factors has contributed to increasing feedlot placements the past two months, including drought and increasing imports. But biggest factor is likely that producers are taking advantage of strong prices.

Peel: Cattle Markets Now and Later
Peel: Cattle Markets Now and Later

Reported national feeder cattle volumes (auction, direct and video/internet) are up 5.6% year-over-year since Labor Day, with the majority in September which contributed to the large September feedlot placements.

Demand Remains Key to High Cattle Prices
Demand Remains Key to High Cattle Prices

Beef demand has been remarkably robust through many shocks in recent years and continues to surprise and impress despite the nervousness of the industry to the challenges facing consumers.

Winter Wheat Grazing Hopes Revived
Winter Wheat Grazing Hopes Revived

The latest Crop Progress report shows that 71 percent of Oklahoma wheat is planted, two percent more than last year but less than the 75 percent 5-year average.

BT_Feedlot_Cattle_Kansas
Peel: Ensuring High Cattle Prices for Longer

Despite ever smaller feeder cattle supplies, feedlot inventories have temporarily halted the slow decline of the last year with the September surge in placements.

Beef_Hamburgers
Peel: The Ground Beef Market Gets Squeezed

Ground beef is the inexpensive alternative consumers turn to when prices rise. However, the overall decline in beef production means that ground beef supplies will be smaller and prices higher going forward.

Peel: The Herd Rebuilding Challenge
Peel: The Herd Rebuilding Challenge

There can be little doubt that the biggest issue in the cattle industry right now is the question of when herd rebuilding will begin. The challenge of herd rebuilding can be summed up with three questions.

Peel: Fall Calf Run Flips the Script
Peel: Fall Calf Run Flips the Script

Fall calf runs typically mean auction volumes increase and prices decrease to seasonal lows. This year is quite different with feeder cattle and calf prices sharply higher than one year ago while volumes are much lower.

Peel: Feedlot Inventories Slowly Diminish
Peel: Feedlot Inventories Slowly Diminish

The latest Cattle on Feed report puts inventories down 2.2% from last year, and up slightly from the August summer low, which was the lowest monthly on-feed total since September 2019.

Peel: Factors Affecting Slaughter Cow Values
Peel: Factors Affecting Slaughter Cow Values

Higher slaughter cow prices are the result of strong lean beef markets and the related growth in breeding demand for cows. The current price of 90 percent lean beef is 17.3 percent higher year over year. 

Get a behind the scenes view of shipping cattle from the Youngmeyer pens in the southern Flint Hills of Kansas (Note: scroll down below for video).
Peel: North American Live Cattle Trade

Live cattle trade is part of the integrated markets for beef and cattle in North America.  Canada and Mexico account for 100 percent of U.S. cattle imports and 95 percent of cattle exports.

Peel: Cattle Prices March Higher…and Higher
Peel: Cattle Prices March Higher…and Higher

Cattle prices have advanced faster than many expected in response to ever tightening cattle and beef supply fundamentals.

Small_Grains_Forage
Peel: Oklahoma Forage Production Rebounds

Although drought persists north and south of Oklahoma, forage conditions have improved greatly in the state this summer. July was the seventh wettest July on record in Oklahoma.

Peel: Winter Wheat Forage Prospects Better in 2023
Peel: Winter Wheat Forage Prospects Better in 2023

Dynamic cattle and grain market conditions mean that producers will need to carefully and frequently evaluate stocker budget prospects this fall prior to stocker purchase.

Several Reasons for Slow Herd Expansion
Several Reasons for Slow Herd Expansion

Despite sharply higher cattle prices, there is no data to suggest heifer retention or enough decrease in beef cow slaughter to initiate herd expansion, although the most recent weekly slaughter data are encouraging.

Peel: A Dearth of Beef Replacement Heifers
Peel: A Dearth of Beef Replacement Heifers

The most recent USDA cattle inventory reports reveal herd numbers continue to shrink, the 2023 mid-year beef cow inventory the lowest in the data set dating back to 1973. Feeder supplies will likely shrink through 2024.

Peel: No Herd Rebuilding in Sight
Peel: No Herd Rebuilding in Sight

The sharp increase in feeder cattle prices this year represents a growing market incentive for the beef cattle industry to transition from liquidation to expansion, but it does not appear the industry is responding yet.

cows-001
Peel: Cow and Heifer Slaughter Still Strong but Declining

July's cattle inventory report will show continued declines to the beef cow herd. While beef cow slaughter is down thus far, the current pace suggests a herd culling rate over 12 percent for the year. 

Peel: Beef and Cattle Trade Responds to Cattle Market Conditions
Peel: Beef and Cattle Trade Responds to Cattle Market Conditions

Beef imports will continue to be supported by higher domestic beef prices and the reduction in U.S. processing beef supplies due to reduced cow slaughter.

Peel: 2023 Cattle Markets: The Year so Far and the Second Half Ahead
Peel: 2023 Cattle Markets: The Year so Far and the Second Half Ahead

Prices are higher as tighter numbers and beef supplies push markets toward record levels. The biggest question now is the extent herd rebuilding begins with increased heifer retention and reductions in cow slaughter.

Peel: Beef Trade Update
Peel: Beef Trade Update

With beef production falling, a relatively strong dollar and some global macroeconomic weakness, a decrease in exports has been expected. 

Peel: Starting the Herd Rebuilding Clock
Peel: Starting the Herd Rebuilding Clock

The arrival of El Niño likely means that additional drought impacts will be minimal and herd expansion may begin. The July Cattle inventory report may be the first sign showing an increase of beef replacement heifers.

Peel: June Heats up…and Not Just the Weather
Peel: June Heats up…and Not Just the Weather

Tightening supplies of beef and cattle are dominating market fundamentals and will continue to do so in the near-term.

BT_Feedlot_Cattle_Feed_Mill
Peel: The Cattle and Beef Margin Squeeze

Increasingly tight cattle supplies suggest that margins at all levels above the cow-calf sector will be squeezed in the coming months.  The severity of the squeeze and the timing will vary across beef industry segments.

Peel: Here We Go Again
Peel: Here We Go Again

For the second time in a decade, drought has pushed cattle numbers in the U.S. lower than planned and lower than needed to meet the demands of the market. 

Drought and Forage Challenges Continue in 2023
Drought and Forage Challenges Continue in 2023

Persistent drought in major beef cattle production regions continues to have a significant impact on the cattle industry despite improvements in drought conditions in other parts of the country.

BT_Beef_Steak_Grill
Peel: Summer Grilling Season is Near

With the grilling season set to kick off, lots of attention is focused on beef demand as the tightening of beef supplies will increase the pressure for higher wholesale and retail beef prices. 

GlobalTrade Agweb
Peel: Global Beef Market Outlook

Global macroeconomic concerns continue to keep beef markets nervous.  Slowdowns in some markets have had some impact and, yet global beef markets continue to be resilient and demonstrate continued growth.  

The Rich Legacy of the Florida Beef Cattle Industry
The Rich Legacy of the Florida Beef Cattle Industry

Last week, a group from Oklahoma visited Florida to learn about cattle and agricultural production in an environment unlike anywhere else in the country. 

BT_Meat_Consumers_Grocery
Keeping an Eye on Beef Demand

It does not appear that consumer beef buying behavior has changed significantly thus far with higher retail beef prices.

Fed Prices Leading Cattle Markets to Record Levels
Fed Prices Leading Cattle Markets to Record Levels

In a steady market, fed prices would typically peak seasonally about now and move lower through the third quarter before increasing to year end, but there is good reason to expect the uptrend will continue in 2023.

Peel: Higher Bred Cow Values Ahead
Peel: Higher Bred Cow Values Ahead

Given growing expectations that drought conditions will moderate through the coming months, bred cow and heifer values are likely to increase sharply by this fall.

Beef Production Decreasing; Prices Higher
Beef Production Decreasing; Prices Higher

Over the past four weeks beef production has averaged 6.4% lower than last year. Production is expected to drop more sharply the remainder of the year.

Peel: Feedlot Inventories are Falling: How Far and How Long?
Peel: Feedlot Inventories are Falling: How Far and How Long?

Feedlot inventories are at their lowest point in 29 months and placements have been lower in 10 of the past 12 months. Here's what historical data shows about how the trend may evolve in the coming months.