Latest News From John Nalivka

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Record Cattle Prices, But the Environmental Challenge is Mounting

Ranchers should be concerned about policies that infringe on public land grazing and limit use of a valuable resource in the name of climate change.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Cattle Numbers Lowest in 73 years - the Glaring Headlines

The beef market has become increasingly dependent on consumer demand – consumers who are both willing and able to continue purchasing beef at higher prices.

Nalivka: The Importance of Data Quality
Nalivka: The Importance of Data Quality

The demand side of the equation has become increasingly crucial to the market’s performance as the per capita beef supply will decline in response to tighter cattle numbers.

Nalivka: The Economics of Carcass Weights
Nalivka: The Economics of Carcass Weights

Economics and the impact on weights – both longer-term and decisions based on short term factors will play an important part in determining beef production in 2024.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Prepare for a Changing Beef Industry

Activists will intensify their calls to end grazing and beef production over the next several years as climate change and carbon emissions become the priority as opposed to just protecting the environment.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Demand Increasingly Critical to Beef Outlook

While tighter cattle numbers and further declines in beef production will support higher prices, demand will increasingly become the critical market driver in 2024.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Genetic Merit Value Discovery Could Prove Monumental

Capturing true value discovery of feeder cattle through genetic merit could become a watershed moment for the U.S. beef industry.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Squaring the Oct. 1 Feedlot Inventory with Total Cattle Numbers

USDA's recent October 1, 2023, Cattle on Feed report offered a few surprising numbers. How does that report square up with previously released USDA data?

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Breaking Down the Carcass to Measure Demand

Prices across the entire beef complex have reached record levels. Demand remains the key variable, and now may be the time to measure demand through the value of the various cuts of the carcass.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Record Prices Require Risk Management

Two years of herd liquidation confirm that cattle numbers are extremely tight with record prices the result. Now is the time to plan and manage for your future.

Short Supply and Structural Shifts In Focus: 2023 State Of The Beef Industry
Short Supply and Structural Shifts In Focus: 2023 State Of The Beef Industry

The state of the U.S. beef industry in 2023 is strong. Drought-induced herd liquidation impacted the supply side, but an even greater impact occurred on the demand side.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Downsizing the U.S. Beef Industry?

Market prices for beef and cattle impact margins and short-term decisions at every level of the supply chain, but decisions concerning long-term financial health are driven by factors that may lead to structural change.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Economic Burden of Regulations

The well-defined costs of ranching and farming are often the focus of managing the business, but little watched regulatory costs can often become a burden to business operators.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Dynamics of Cattle Numbers and Capacity

With estimates of 82% capacity utilization of fed beef plants next year and 65% for cow slaughter plants, Nalivka says, “Rest assured - there will be decisions made.”

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Using Genetic Merit as the Basis for Pricing Feeder Cattle & Calves

The foundation for consumer beef demand is not just quality, but consistent quality.  Consumers want assurances the beef product they purchase today will be of the same quality as the beef they purchased last week.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Cattle Cycle Economics Versus Value-added Marketing

Further processing of value-added products for direct sale to end-user customers in both retail and foodservice will increase over the next five years and help feed the growing global consumer demand.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Prominent Role of Packer Capacity in Fed Cattle Markets

As supplies of market-ready cattle have declined, so has beef packer capacity utilization.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: On Government and Agriculture

Increasingly, U.S. and global agriculture are rapidly adopting a system driven by government regulations. Such regulatory activity should concern us all.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Supply and Use Data

With a lower cattle inventory, per capita consumption will be the lowest since 2015.But while 2023 beef production will be down 6% from last year, it will still be 3 billion pounds greater than 2015.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Complexity of Market Economics

Market economics go beyond supply and demand and other key drivers are becoming increasingly meaningful in the current market environment including adjustments to production capacity. 

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Environmental End Game

Sound resource management with a drive toward increased production efficiency will support production agriculture well into the future.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Battle for U.S. Agriculture

Oregon ranchers and feedlots are concerned about Senate Bill 85, which would stop the permitting of all "industrial sized" operations.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Marketing Versus Selling Your Calves and Feeder Cattle

Several market advantages exist for building high-quality genetics into your herd, but capturing the value that has been created is a different issue.

Nalivka: Implications of USDA’s Jan. 1 Inventory Report
Nalivka: Implications of USDA’s Jan. 1 Inventory Report

With extremely tight cattle numbers, how quickly can producers expand their herds - if at all. Drought and slim margins mean expansion will be a rather slow-go with many ranchers taking a wait and see approach.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Who Wins, Consumer Beef Demand or the Climate Activists?

The need for telling beef’s story to the general public, to both beef consumers as well as non-consumers, has become increasingly important and critical to the long-term success of the industry.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Can You Benefit From Economies of Scale?

Economies of scale is not a difficult concept, and it is one that certainly does not need our government using it to decide what is fair. 

John Nalivka
Nalivka: As the Market Heads into 2023, What If?

What clues can cattlemen glean from historical market activity from December to May for perspective on price trends and profit margins?

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Challenges Facing the Beef Industry

Both the inventory of beef cows and total cattle numbers in 2023 will be the lowest since 2014. After seven years of low returns, ranchers now look forward to 2023 with prospects for significant profits.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Retail Beef Prices

Retail beef prices are higher, but the more relevant prices are featured prices on the ads that are reported every week by USDA and provide a much more realistic picture of retail meat case activity.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Production Decisions Led by the Market not the Government

Is the U.S. government attempting to take charge of our food system? John Nalivka suggests current funding programs aimed at strengthening the U.S. beef industry are at odds with the dynamics of the industry. 

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Measuring for Economic Outcomes

Carbon counting – which is ill defined – may be one more regulatory hurdle akin to federal lands grazing management plans with somewhat undefinable outcomes but are ridden with regulations. 

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Decisions Impacting the Margin Outlook

With rebalancing of the cattle market comes a shift in margins favoring cattlemen. The beef industry outlook going forward hinges on the availability of forage for grazing.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: USDA’s Efforts to “Fix” the U.S. Food System

USDA just announced “major actions” to “spur competition, protect producers, and reduce costs." Such an announcement might be more intimidating to the free market than helpful.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Cattle Markets Heading Into 2023 – Downside?

The current phase of the cattle cycle favors ranchers and cattle feeders as 2023 approaches, says John Nalivka. Are there downsides to the current expectations for cattle markets over the next year?

Nalivka: Challenges Down the Beef Supply Chain
Nalivka: Challenges Down the Beef Supply Chain

Research by environmental scientists at the University of Oxford, England, have raised the idea of a meat tax to reduce greenhouse gases.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Federal Lands Grazing Challenge

American ranchers continue to face challenges to end livestock grazing on federal lands. We must remain vigilant to those challenges in order to contribute to U.S. agriculture, the food industry and the U.S. economy.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: 2023 Cattle Market – Caution From the Demand Side

The positive shift in beef demand over the past decade has been supportive of beef prices, but we should be cautious about assuming that demand will remain at such a high level.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Time to Begin Thinking About U.S. Food Security

Federal misguided environmental policies can have an impact on all of agriculture and impact long-term U.S. food security.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: What's the Bigger Culprit Impacting Ranchers – Energy or Packers?

Our inflationary situation is solvable.  Energy costs are the most significant driver to inflation across the beef supply chain – gasoline at the pump for consumers and diesel fuel for production and distribution.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: 2014 Record Feeder Cattle Prices Today, What If?

When it comes to feeder cattle prices, 2014 was a year to remember. What if we apply those prices to today's cattle feeding scenario? How would margins fair?

John Nalivka
Nalivka: The Government’s Actions to Create Fairer Marketplaces

On May 26th USDA announced three initiatives as the first of a “suite of major actions under the Biden Administration to create fairer marketplaces for poultry, livestock, and hog producers.”

Nalivka: 1st Quarter Beef Industry Prices Across the Supply Chain
Nalivka: 1st Quarter Beef Industry Prices Across the Supply Chain

Beef prices have been notably higher this year and demand will remain key as supplies tighten into 2023 with consumers continuing to face ramped inflation.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Packers, Politicians and Misunderstood Meat Industry Economics

Rather than running to the politicians to solve a problem, perhaps the better strategy might be to gather a plan to create a better understanding of the economics of the industry.

Nalivka: Tracking Beef Cow Slaughter
Nalivka: Tracking Beef Cow Slaughter

Through the week ending March 26th, beef cow slaughter year-to-date is 16% higher than a year earlier and the highest since 1986, and we're on pace to slaughter 12.3% of the cowherd.

Nalivka: Costs of Production and Food Prices
Nalivka: Costs of Production and Food Prices

While inflation has become a focus of many recent news reports, there is much confusion about how inflation affects farm and ranch income.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Beef Prices, Environmentalists and the Beef Industry

Inflation has hit consumers hard and drawn the attention of the national media. With increasing media attention on climate change, do activists see inflation as a way to encourage Americans to reduce beef consumption?

Nalivka: Are Cattle Markets Headed to 2014 Prices or Higher?
Nalivka: Are Cattle Markets Headed to 2014 Prices or Higher?

Cattle prices are improving in all regions as cattle numbers have declined. Expansion and continuation of the current drought could cut cattle numbers even further and produce higher cattle prices.

Nalivka: 2022 Cattle Inventory Comments
Nalivka: 2022 Cattle Inventory Comments

While markets are one component of the cattle cycle, the critical factor driving the cattle cycle and the cow-calf sector of the cattle industry is forage.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Bragging rights are in order!

Production efficiency is key to sustainability including profitability, both at the ranch and for the industry as a whole, but that production efficiency doesn’t end at the ranch gate.

John Nalivka
Nalivka: Key Beef Industry Economics - Not Just For Ranchers and Packers

Is the Biden Administration's plan for the beef industry workable, or does it ignore the economics of market structure and pricing across the meat industry supply chain?