Drought Outlook: Further Improvement for Eastern Edge of Drought Area

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued its extended weather forecasts and its outlook for July calls for enhanced odds of below-average precipitation for the northwest U.S., which is expected to promote further drought expansion and persistence. In the Southwest, the potential for a robust and early onset of monsoon wetness may bring drought relief to Arizona, western New Mexico and as far north as southern Utah and Nevada. In contrast, enhanced seasonal probabilities of abnormal dryness and warmth in western Texas are expected to promote drought persistence and expansion. Meanwhile, chances are equal across the bulk of the Corn Belt for above-, normal and below-normal precip and temps.

In its extended outlook through September, it says wet summer climatology may aid in further east to west erosion of drought across the Great Plains, but the prospects for relief are less certain along the High Plains, where extreme to exceptional drought has been entrenched for months and soil moisture is very low. The 90-day outlook calls for above-normal temps in most areas west of the Rockies, including Nebraska southward, while chances are equal for normal, below- and above-normal temps across the Corn Belt. The same holds true for precip chances across the Corn Belt, with the exception of above-normal precip chances in the far southern tip of the eastern Belt.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook below reflects persistent drought in the western states, but calls for more improvement along the eastern border of the drought area.