Despite the strong political rhetoric at the center of cattle and beef prices, as well as meatpackers seeing major losses, economists say rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd will be the slowest in history.
Cattle market fundamentals remain unchanged while psychology shifts the market due to the President’s comments and industry interference.
Customers crave the quality and consistency of U.S. pork, beef and lamb. That is helping the industry overcome market challenges, explained USMEF’s Dan Halstrom at the USMEF Conference in Indianapolis.
R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle.
Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel says the beef industry needs time — not politics or policy — to solve beef supply and demand realities.
Let’s debunk three claims about the beef packing industry.
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Meat Institute report analyzes the state of beef cattle markets and points out current pricing myths.
After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.
Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.
Justin Tupper, United States Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) president, joins AgriTalk to discuss the state of the beef market, focusing on recent comments by President Donald Trump and the impact of beef imports.
Four drivers that determine what is “fair” in terms of a cash lease or percentage of the calf crop the cow owner should receive.
Although warning signs are emerging, economists say record-high beef prices could hold for up to two more years. Tight supplies and strong demand continue to drive the market, but economists and producers are apprehensive with talks of reopening the border.
Live cattle are sharply lower with limit down moves in feeders under expanded limits on Monday morning. Brad Kooima says now the focus is on the possibility of the U.S. dropping the 50% additional tariffs on beef imports.
Breaking down USDA’s new plan, beef demand and the cattle market.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and feeder quickly pushed to limit down status with fear of the U.S. opening the border to Mexican feeder imports.
Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.
Market swings and heavy lifting ahead for cutout values.
On Wednesday, Secretary Rollins announced a plan for American ranchers and consumers as Trump posted comments on social media regarding tariff impact on beef prices.
Risk management isn’t about eliminating all risk but strategically navigating market uncertainties.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says soybeans ended higher on Monday and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week. Cattle tried to recover after Friday’s meltdown and after President Trump comments about the U.S. buying Argentina beef to lower prices for consumers.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying this week after bouncing off key support on the charts. The key is can the markets build on it next week?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says November feeder cattle futures were up over $20 last week and have led the rally on strong cash, tight supplies and the continued cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico keeping the border shut.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $22 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388. Grains see pressure from China trade news.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the market is staying intact and absorbing a great deal of bearish news including last week’s lower fed cash trade and lower cutouts.