The federal government’s continued shutdown is no longer just a Washington standoff — it’s becoming a real-world problem for farmers and ranchers. As the days drag on without resolution, three Kansas State University economists warn that even with FSA offices back open, the absence of key USDA reports is rippling through every corner of the ag economy, from commodity markets to cattle prices and farm-level business planning.
But on Friday, USDA-NASS issued a bit of surprise. The agency says NASS will release key data in November for the following reports, some with a delay:
- Milk Production – Nov. 10 (previously scheduled for Oct. 22)
- Crop Production – Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10)
- Cattle on Feed – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
- Milk Production – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
- The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production report on Nov. 14.
With much of the agency still furloughed, there are questions regarding how NASS will have enough staff to provide those key reports. The release didn’t offer any additional details, only saying those key reports will be released in November.
However, there are a few key reports still missing, which includes daily flash sales reports and weekly export sales information.
A Data Blackout Hits the Heart of Agriculture
Until now, the shutdown has silenced the regular flow of government data that producers, analysts and traders depend on — reports like the weekly export sales, crop progress and Cattle on Feed updates, as well as the highly anticipated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
“The fact that the government is still shut down means we aren’t getting those weekly export sales reports,” says Allen Featherstone, head of the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. “That’s a real problem because we rely on that information to confirm what’s actually happening in the market.”
Is China Actually Buying? The Absence of Flash Sales Reports Creates Confusion
With the U.S. and China negotiating renewed agricultural trade commitments, there are fresh promises of more purchases in the weeks and months ahead. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and has committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing.
Featherstone notes that while China claims it is buying U.S. soybeans, the lack of USDA verification makes it difficult to gauge the truth and confirm those buys are happening. And in USDA’s announcement Friday, there was no indication the flash sales and weekly export sales will resume.
“Earlier this week, China reportedly purchased three vessels, about 180,000 metric tons, but not having official data from USDA is a major issue,” he says. “Tracking purchases becomes challenging when the normal reporting mechanisms are down.”
Despite some optimism around U.S.-China trade progress, Featherstone says markets are hesitant to believe much until concrete export numbers appear.
“If China doesn’t come through, that will lead to more negativity in prices given the size of this year’s crop,” he says. “China imports roughly 60% of the world’s soybeans, and if they don’t buy from us, that’s a big problem.”
Featherstone emphasizes the importance of diversifying U.S. export markets.
“We need to broaden who’s buying our products,” he says. “Relying too heavily on one trade partner makes us vulnerable, and this shutdown is a reminder of just how fragile that system can be when government data and diplomacy both stall.”
No November WASDE?
While some private companies attempt to replicate USDA’s data models, those efforts often fall short, according to Terry Griffin, K-State’s precision agriculture economist.
“We’re not likely to have a November WASDE because all the footwork that leads up to it hasn’t happened,” Griffin explains. “Even if the shutdown ends this weekend, that report won’t be ready. There’s just too much groundwork that hasn’t been done.”
He says the lack of USDA reports has forced brokers, trading firms and agribusinesses to depend on private estimates that vary widely.
“They’ve become so reliant on USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service that they’re struggling right now to do their business,” Griffin says. “It’s throwing off everything from national models to local crop forecasts.”
Griffin also points out the shutdown’s impact reaches beyond the boardroom and into academia.
“We have a graduate student working on a peanut production forecasting model, and she’s using crop progress data that come out every week,” he explains. “Without those reports, she can’t validate her model. The data blackout affects research, innovation and business planning all at once.”
Cattle Producers Face Growing Uncertainty
The shutdown’s effects extend deeply into the livestock sector, where missing data is already creating confusion and volatility. Glynn Tonsor, K-State livestock economist, says the absence of reports like Cattle on Feed and slaughter estimates makes it difficult to assess market fundamentals.
“The Cattle on Feed Report is something we normally get monthly. Historically, it has a steer and heifer breakdown, which would be quite useful at the moment as the most recent insight about whether we’re expanding the herd or not, and we’re not going to have that detail,” says Tonsor. “There’s also been a lot of discussion about beef prices and some accusations or desires to make those lower, and we’re actually already behind on what the beef price is in this country. So there’s lots of examples that we could give you that are not just livestock and not just crops. And the longer the shutdown goes, the longer those data gaps exist and build, the harder it is for anybody, whether it’s an academic like us up here or private sector or individual producers, to adjust.”
He notes while we did see life in the cattle market this week, if you look at what happened since President Trump made comments about cattle prices being too high, the cattle market has pulled back significantly in recent weeks.
“Roughly $200 per head has come off the value of cattle in just 10 days,” Tonsor says. “If you’re a cow-calf producer, you’re still positioned for 2025 to be a good year, but uncertainty is the biggest risk right now. Anything that elevates uncertainty delays long-term investments, whether that’s expanding the herd or making capital improvements.”
That uncertainty isn’t only about market data. Tonsor says the political noise out of Washington, including renewed calls for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL), adds to the confusion.
“Taste remains the main driver of beef demand,” he says. “Origin and traceability rank much lower for the average consumer. There are niche opportunities, but for most people, it’s not what decides their protein purchases.”
A Cloud of Uncertainty Over Rural America
For now, K-State’s economists agree on one thing: The shutdown’s ripple effects are growing with every passing day. From grain markets to livestock pricing, from academic research to on-farm decision-making, the absence of reliable government data leaves agriculture flying blind.
“The longer the shutdown goes, the more those data gaps build,” Tonsor says. “And the harder it becomes for anyone, whether you’re an academic, a trader or a producer, to adjust.”
Political Blame Game in Washington
The political blame game continues in Washington, and it’s creating a stalemate. The Democrats are blaming the GOP, and the GOP is blaming the Democrats, both claiming the other party doesn’t care about every day Americans, otherwise the other side would make concessions to reopen the government.
House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., released a statement on Friday, the day before SNAP benefits are set to expire, saying the prolonged government shutdown is caused by Democrats in the U.S. Senate.
“Because Senate Democrats insist on keeping the federal government shut down, more than 40 million Americans — including children, seniors, veterans and military families — will not receive their November SNAP benefits beginning this weekend. The No. 2 House Democrat acknowledged that suffering families are their ‘leverage’, confirming that this is a political choice.”
U.S. Representative Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Ranking Member of the House Ag Committee, says the onus falls on President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans.
“Secretary Rollins said one honest thing today: The government is failing the American people. Republicans control the House, Senate and White House. The Trump administration has the legal authority and funds necessary to get November SNAP benefits out the door. They are illegally withholding food from 42 million Americans, and it is shameful,” said Craig in a statement on Friday.
USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the fallout extends well beyond the Capitol. From families losing access to food assistance to disruptions in beef and soybean markets, Vaden warns that the consequences are real and immediate.
In an interview on “AgriTalk,” Vaden accuses congressional Democrats of blocking a “clean continuing resolution” and says the resulting gridlock could harm both consumers and producers.
“If they don’t vote to reopen the government, then 40-plus million SNAP recipients see no extra money added to their benefit cards this weekend,” Vaden says. “We shouldn’t be playing politics with people’s lives and people’s dinner tables.”
SNAP and WIC Funding Hang in the Balance
Vaden says USDA manages to keep the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program funded for now by reallocating money from other programs. But the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which costs about $9 billion each month, has no such cushion.
“When it comes to SNAP, we’re talking about more than 9 billion — with a B — dollars,” he explains. “We don’t have that kind of money lying around here at USDA. The contingency fund people talk about is nowhere close to that amount, and it’s meant for natural disasters. We surely don’t want to be spending that and then hoping there’s no hurricane while Congress continues this shutdown.”
Without congressional action, Vaden says 40 million Americans might not receive their grocery benefits at the start of November — a moment when both food demand and household strain typically rise ahead of the holidays.
“That’s 9 billion dollars of groceries,” Vaden emphasizes. “And those groceries include beef, pork and poultry. These are markets that are sensitive to even a 1% shift in demand.”
“A Lump of Coal” for the Holidays
As the shutdown looms, Vaden says the timing is especially painful.
“We’re heading into the holiday season; it’s supposed to be a time of good cheer,” he says. “Unfortunately, Senator Schumer and Representative Jeffries are giving everybody a lump of coal. This needs to stop. We shouldn’t be playing games with people’s lives.”
He adds that USDA can move quickly once Congress passes appropriations.
“You want people to receive their SNAP benefits? It’s real simple,” Vaden says. “Give us our normal appropriations, and USDA will do what it does so well: get those benefits onto people’s cards quickly and efficiently.”
