Demand for U.S. red meat remains robust in key destinations where customers crave the quality and consistency of U.S. pork, beef and lamb, despite significant obstacles in the international marketplace, explained U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO Dan Halstrom at the USMEF Strategic Planning Conference in Indianapolis.
Pork exports are modestly below last year’s record pace, but he says the gap stems mostly from a period early in 2025 when China’s retaliatory tariffs increased and the U.S. industry faced uncertainty about plant eligibility.
“Although export data is only available through July due to the government shutdown, pork shipments are on record pace to leading market Mexico, as well as to Central America and Colombia,” USMEF reports.
Halstrom says beef exports have been hit harder by barriers in China, where U.S. beef not only faces retaliatory tariffs, but also unwarranted plant delistings and China’s failure to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities. Fully reopening the world’s largest beef import market to U.S. beef will require several actions on China’s part, and the lockout could extend into 2026.
“This is obviously a political card that’s being held by the China side,” Halstrom says. “One thing I’m very confident in is that [the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative] is well aware of our position, well aware of what’s involved, and very well-informed. I do think they’ll get it worked out eventually, I just can’t tell you when – no one can.”
Free Trade Agreements are Key
Protecting and defending existing free trade agreements is an urgent priority, Halstrom says. He is optimistic that ongoing negotiations with several trading partners may lead to new opportunities for U.S. red meat, especially in Southeast Asia.
Over the past decade, red meat exports to free trade agreement partner countries have expanded by more than 30%, and exports to these destinations now account for 76% of total shipments, he says.
Invoking the Paul Harvey quote, “In times like these, it helps to recall that there have always been times like these,” Halstrom reminds USMEF members that the industry has endured tremendous trade setbacks in the past, including widespread market closures due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and plunging consumer confidence and buying power in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
“Remember that we overcame all those obstacles,” Halstrom says. “I believe that with the knowledge in this room, and with continued cooperation and collaboration, we can overcome anything.”
A Complicated Relationship
Keynote speaker Jan Lambregts, head of RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets, discussed the complexities of the U.S.-China trade relationship.
“I’m not quite sure if you will like this news, but I don’t think there will be a comprehensive deal coming soon between China and the U.S.,” Lambregts shares. “What the U.S. is demanding is access to Chinese markets. What China will never give is access to the Chinese market because that’s not how they’ve been winning in trade during the past 30 to 40 years.”
Both countries are playing for time, he says. China has been cut off from high-end semiconductors and needs time to develop its own semiconductor sector. Similarly, the U.S. needs time to build its rare earths capacity, including development of extraction and processing capabilities.
“In the meantime, the U.S. is basically sending all its allies the same message: What was previously free defense now must be paid for, because we (the U.S.) need to be compensated. And by the way, if you want to trade with China, there are conditions now,” Lambregts says.
