Hyrum Egbert

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2026 will be a year of beef demand shifting not disappearing.
In 2026, imports decide how painful the grind gets, exports decide whether the carcass pencils, and policy decides how fast everything can change.
2026 is not the year the cattle cycle “fixes itself.” It is the year the industry learns how to ration a smaller supply base without blowing itself up.
Protein is back on top. Ground beef might be the quiet winner, with imports doing the heavy lifting.
Imagine the media, special interest groups and politicians get their way.
Today’s concentration is real, but it’s not the same beast as early 1900s concentration because the governance environment is radically different: stronger safety laws, stronger enforcement, more transparency, more consequences.
Rather than hunting for a villain, the industry would be better served focusing on five tangible areas.
The “Big 4" packers are on trial to determine if they suppress cattle bids in a thin cash market, underpay farmers and ranchers, and control what consumers pay for beef.
Foreign-controlled packers are on trial to determine if their ability to own U.S. plants and import product from affiliated foreign operations allows them to shape domestic prices and supply to the detriment of U.S. producers and consumers.
Were beef price spikes the product of an agreement between meatpackers rather than the predictable result of herd cycles, external events and plant utilization?