Fed Cattle
Cattle markets surging $10 higher over the past two weeks have pushed the 5-area average price to record levels and the rally may continue this week.
With cattle feeders in the driver’s seat, packers will seek leverage to price cattle for future delivery. They aren’t looking to do feeders a favor with the strategy.
The American Hereford Association announces an expansion of their popular Hereford Feedout Program to accommodate more producers.
Packers chased finished cattle into the evening on Wednesday last week and the result was another rally in cash prices to new record highs, eclipsing the mark set in November 2014.
In a steady market, fed prices would typically peak seasonally about now and move lower through the third quarter before increasing to year end, but there is good reason to expect the uptrend will continue in 2023.
Last week’s huge cash rally featured all packers vying for position to tie up cattle in all regions. Yet, packers aren’t gaining inventory.
New research helps policymakers understand the role multi-plant coordination plays in the fed cattle market as they consider policies aimed at increasing negotiated trade with the hope of improving price discovery.
Cash cattle prices turned sharply higher last week as supplies continue to tighten. Moderate to active trade pushed cash prices to new highs for the year with some eyeing another surge next week.
With current fed cattle carcass weights 16 lb. lighter than a year ago marbling achievement, on average, is likely to underperform in contrast to the past two years.
A healthy dose of cynicism is said to be a good thing. But that can easily morph into defeatism. And when that occurs, it’s paralyzing.
Packers put wheels under cattle to buy themselves time as Southern cattle are hauled to Northern plants.
Northern feeders have experienced considerably more adverse weather and muddy pen conditions than southern yards, contributing to the tightening supply of well-finished cattle.
Regardless of your market segment or marketing method, the increased visibility to premiums and discounts through the cattle contract library provides further guidance as to where the packers assign value.
Feedlot inventories are at their lowest point in 29 months and placements have been lower in 10 of the past 12 months. Here’s what historical data shows about how the trend may evolve in the coming months.
Instability in equity markets proved a drag on futures last week, providing an incentive for feeders to trade on lower bids. Packers will continue to struggle with inventory going forward.
Despite record beef exports in 2022, signs of weakening beef trade were developing late in the year with beef exports down year-over-year in both November and December.
Beef packers show their willingness to rely on their captive supplies as they struggle to hold a lid on rising cattle prices. Tighter supplies in the coming weeks will force their hand.
Cattle feeders are firmly in the driver’s seat as cattle prices continue higher. Contract cattle and commitments to packers are dwindling and won’t last long.
With continuing drought, it is not clear exactly how cattle and beef market timing will develop going forward, but the question is not one of whether beef production will fall, but rather how fast and how much in 2023.
The 2023 bull market entered March with modest gains for fed cattle and some impressive gains for feeder cattle and calves. The spring seasonal rally is likely to extend well into April.
Many ranchers have successfully improved genetic potential for both growth and marbling, yet many simply wean and/or ship calves at a specified time and/or weight, forfeiting much of the value they’ve worked to create.
Cattle feeders continued gaining market leverage this week as prices moved higher and slaughter levels declined.
Data from Performance Livestock Analytics software and competitive grid marketing access from GeneNet helps beef producers market the value of their cattle.
Packers grudgingly bid higher for the week in what was called a light to moderate trade. Cattle feeders were firm sellers as some passed on those higher bids late week.
When cattle diets are changed without an adaptation period or if cattle have sudden access to a new feedstuff, health problems can follow.
Tighter inventories of market-ready cattle are leaving packers little alternative to placing higher bids. Last week’s 5-area average price was the highest in nearly eight years.
A cattle rally is under way and attempts by packers to ignore it are having little effect. Cash cattle prices ticked up as front-end supplies continue to tighten.
From a cattlemen’s perspective fed cattle prices have been “just good enough” since the first of the year, only showing some spark as recently as last week with the nearly $3/cwt. move.
The standoff lasted until late week, but most trade regions saw multiple bidders for fed cattle.
With the opportunity to visit a number of cattle feeding operations and learn a bit about how cattle feeding works in this unique environment, Dr. Derrell Peel of OSU shares his experience from his recent trip to Canada.