U.S. Retail Meat Sales Remain Strong
Domestic retail meat sales remain robust, despite inflation, according to data from Anne-Marie Roerink, president 210 Analytics, LLC.
While the fourth quarter of 2021 was disrupted by high levels of COVID-19 cases, high inflation and continued supply chain disruption, consumers continued to buy red meat and poultry at impressive rates. Total 2021 meat sales were virtually flat compared to the record 2020 sales, but compared to the pre-pandemic normal of 2019, sales averaged between 17% and 20% above typical levels.
“Importantly, when removing the effect of high inflation, the retail supply chain continues to move more pounds through the system when compared to 2019 (+3.5%), even if year-on-year pound sales were down 6.7% in 2020. Volume losses were milder for processed meat, at -5.8% and up the most when compared with 2019, at +4.1%,” Roerink said.
December’s volume sales exceeded the pre-pandemic normal by 1.9%, whereas dollar sales exceeded December 2019 levels by 22.4%. Year-on-year, December dollar sales were up 6.7%, while pounds were down 6.5%.
“The volume performance varies widely by species,” Roerink said. “Across fresh and processed meat, lamb was the only one to grow pound sales year-on-year in 2020. Lamb also had the highest growth in pound sales when compared to the 2019 pre-pandemic normal. The only area to lose ground when compared with 2019 pounds were hotdogs.”
Each week in December saw gains, but the Christmas week performance was astounding, she said. Dollar sales increased 17% over year ago and 42% over 2019. The dollar gains came hand-in-hand with a 1.1% increase in volume when compared with 2020 and an 18.1% increase versus 2019.
“This underscores IRI’s survey findings that Americans were ready to celebrate the holidays, much like seen for Thanksgiving and Halloween earlier in the year. Sales during the week before the holiday also increased significantly.”
One of the biggest stories of 2020 was the significant increase in sales of ground meat, and that continued in 2021. Data from 210 Analytics shows ground beef sales generated $11.3 billion in 2021 – nearly 86% of all grind dollars.
“While much smaller, ground chicken and pork managed year-over-year increases in sales as consumers are exploring different ground options,” Roerink said.
The monthly IRI primary shopper survey found people are very aware of inflation, with 43% perceiving prices to be a little higher and 48% perceiving them to be much higher. Among those who have noticed inflation, 94% are concerned about it. Beef and pork, produce and chicken/turkey lead the list of items where most people have noticed inflation.
