U.S. cattle inventory is largely driven by smaller producers with fewer than 100 cows. According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, 557,075 cow-calf operations run fewer than 100 cows, which accounted for 89.5% of total cow-calf operations and 39.5% of the total cows. In 2022, the total number of operations represented a 15% drop from the 2017 Census. While the operations with 100 cows or less accounted for about the same percentage of the total cow-calf operations in 2022 versus 2017, they accounted for a smaller percentage of the total cows — down from 44% in the 2017 Census.
I have once again thrown a lot of numbers at you, but the point is that from 2017 to 2022, there was a significant decline in the number of operations with fewer than 100 cows and these operations held a smaller percentage of the total cows.
While some operations increased their cow numbers and moved up the scale in the census survey to 100 to 499 cows, there were also many that simply exited the industry. This would have been evident in the 2022 survey when drought and financial issues prompted liquidation. Unlike herd liquidation in previous cattle cycles, many cow-calf producers exited the industry for good. If that is indeed the case, their permanent departure will be a major factor impacting both the pace and the extent of herd building going forward.
The 2022 Census supports movement toward larger operations. The two groups of operations to drop in number were those with a herd size fewer than 100 cows and 100 to 499 cows. All other operations increased in number of operations. While the total number of operations fell from 2017 to 2022, the number of operations with 500 to 999 cows increased 19% from the 2017 survey and 8% from 2012 to 2017.
Expansion or liquidation of U.S. cattle numbers is mostly driven by small operations. I do believe the decline in their number will impact the pace of herd growth going forward.
