In a market defined by record-breaking prices, an unlikely partnership is driving the value of ground beef: 980-lb. carcasses and the lean cull cows needed to balance them out. While fed cattle weights have reached historic highs, they’ve created a massive surplus of fat trim that requires an equally historic amount of lean blending beef to meet consumer demand. This blending math — combined with tight supplies and a shift in culling patterns — is pushing cull cow prices to new heights.
David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist for livestock and food product marketing, in a recent Southern Ag Today article, summarizes that cull cow prices keep climbing.
“While calf and fed cattle prices have continued to set new record highs in the cash and futures market, cull cow prices have continued their slow ascent to new highs as lean beef prices keep pulling cow prices higher,” Anderson explains. “Southern Plains cull cow auction prices increased to almost $180 per cwt in late April, up about $15 per cwt since January. The seasonal price increase has been smaller than normal this year. Cutter-quality cows have increased about $30 per cwt., almost 25%, since the beginning of the year.”
The Blending Effect: Why 980-lb. Carcasses Need Lean Cows
Blending math is the process of mixing high-fat trim from fed cattle with 90% lean beef from cull cows to meet consumer demand for specific ground beef ratios. Anderson stresses one overlooked boost to lean beef prices has been record-large fed cattle dressed weights. Average federally inspected fed steer dressed weights have remained more than 980 lb. per carcass since late 2025.
“Larger carcasses produce additional fat that requires more lean beef for blending to boost its value as ground beef rather than just tallow entering the fats and oils market,” he says.
Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University professor of agricultural economics, says when the beef industry harvests animals bigger than ever, it is also getting more 50% lean and 50% fat trimmings per animal than ever before. He points out most consumers don’t directly consume 50/50, thus it is an input into ground beef production, and it only works if there is more lean to blend with it.
If there is not enough U.S.-produced lean to blend, the next option is to import lean.
Dairy Culling Shifts and the April Pullback
After exceeding slaughter of a year ago through the first 10 weeks of 2026, dairy cow culling pulled back to year-ago levels during April.
“Dairy cow culling typically peaks in January and February each year, then declines into midyear,” Anderson says. “The decline in dairy cow slaughter has pulled down total cow culling as weekly beef cow slaughter has held at steady but low levels. For the year, total dairy cow slaughter is reported up 6% compared to last year while total cow slaughter (beef and dairy) is down 5%.”
Beef and dairy cow slaughter is reported weekly by region of the U.S. In recent weeks, Anderson says reported regional cow slaughter data has declined due to confidentiality rules that prevent publication if there are too few buyers to prevent revealing any one operation’s actions.
“The lack of reporting due to confidentiality concerns has been a problem in fed cattle reporting for many years,” Anderson says. “On the positive side, the weekly national cow slaughter data includes all of the regions, including those that could not be reported regionally.”
Retention vs. Liquidation: The Impact of Record Calf Values
Anderson says record-high calf prices are likely keeping cows on the ranch or dairy that otherwise would have been culled to get one more calf out of them. As those calves are born and move to weaning, there may be an increase in culling as those cows come to market.
“Cull prices tend to peak midyear, so there is room for cow prices to continue to increase over the next couple of months,” Anderson says. “Beyond just the seasonal pattern arguing for higher prices, cow culling should continue to be lower than last year, further supporting prices. Beef cow slaughter is expected to remain well below a year ago. Better milk prices should restrain dairy cow culling even though the herd remains large.”
Analyst Predicts Cull Cow Prices Will Remain Elevated
Adding to the discussion on cull cow marketing strategies, Don Close, Terrain chief beef analyst, explains, “Growing up in sale barns we always used to say the best day of the year to sell a used cow is the first day of baseball season. There is some grounding in that date. As soon as grass greens, after a producer has kept her and fed hay all winter, he isn’t going to sell her if he has grass, especially if he thinks she is bred. Once she has calved and grass is available, the producer isn’t inclined to do much unless it is a drought or injury issue. At this point they will wait until fall weaning and cow-sorting time.”
He also points out another driving factor for cull cow prices is the strength of ground beef prices supported with the beginning of the grilling season — prepared-meat manufacturers’ demand is at its peak. Hot dog and lunch meat sales go up as children are out of school and with ballpark hot dog consumption.
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