Update: Late Monday night, the Wall Street Journal reported the president delayed his actions.
Tuesday morning, in response to the delayed signing of the executive orders, a White House official says, “The President is committed to lowering beef and other grocery costs for everyday Americans, and the Administration is accordingly fine-tuning potential executive actions to alleviate temporary shortages in the domestic beef market.”
In response to the potential expansion of imports, R-CALF USA issued a statement sharing the organizations concerns with the potential 200-day suspension of certain tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) for beef.
On Monday, a White House official confirmed the President Trump would sign two executive orders to address short-term supply issues in the U.S. beef market by expanding imports and supporting the renewal of America’s domestic cattle herd, which is currently at a multidecade low.
According to a Wall Street Journal article, “The Trump administration is opening the way to import more steaks and ground beef from overseas, part of a broader effort to address record-high beef prices.”
The WSJ article explains the administration is planning to temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports as soon as Monday, according to people familiar with the matter. “The move would suspend the annual tariff-rate quota — which applies a higher tariff rate after a certain level of beef imports are reached — on all beef-exporting nations, enabling more of the product to enter the U.S. at lower tariff rates.”
Beef prices have seen sizable year over year increases for some time. According to Reuters, although prices for eggs, milk and other grocery staples have fallen since Trump took office in January 2025, beef prices have continued to climb.
Last October, Trump ordered a quadrupling of beef imports from Argentina, and a month later removed his 40% punitive tariff on Brazilian beef and coffee.
Reuters says the moves did little to reverse beef prices, which are up 12.1% year-over-year in April, according to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index. Beef is more than 16% more expensive than when Trump returned to office in January 2025.
What Does Monday’s Announcement Mean
“There is considerable uncertainty about the details,” says Derrell Peel, State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “It’s not clear whether this only applies to over-quota tariffs or to the 10% retaliatory tariffs that everyone faces. In any event, I don’t believe this will have large impacts to reduce beef prices in the U.S.”
Peel predicts it may only impact Brazil and perhaps Paraguay. Otherwise it may impact Australia and others as well.
“The market is basically determining beef imports now, albeit with some tariffs,” he explains. “Reducing tariffs might have a minor impact on the quantity of imports but I think it is minimal. If it does have any impacts it will marginally reduce lean processing beef prices and thus ground beef. No impact on steaks.”
David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist for livestock and food product marketing, explains the U.S. has TRQs on beef from a bunch of countries.
“The way it works is that the country can export to us at a low tariff until the quota is filled and then the tariff jumps up to a higher level for the rest of the year,” he explains. “For example, imports from Brazil come in at a very low tariff until the quota is triggered and then the tariff jumps to 26.4%.”
Anderson explains by suspending the TRQ the administration has announced, effectively, a lower tariff on imported beef.
“The majority of what we import is lean trimmings for ground beef so that might suggest any impact might be more on the cull cow side of things. I don’t expect much, if any, price impact from this,” Anderson predicts. “These countries also export beef to China and other places so how much is really available to send here? Existing contracts with other buyers in other countries may impact how much is available right away to come here.”
He adds China has recently announced TRQs on beef and the ones for Australia and Brazil are likely to quite restrictive later in the year.
“That indicates that we might get more imports from those countries later in 2026 due to the Chinese tariff restricting what they can sell in China due to relative prices including the tariff,” he summarizes.
Beef Imports Today
Peel says, “Beef imports increased 18% year over year in 2025 and are up 61.4% since 2022, the year of record U.S. beef production and when the current market run began. Total beef production in 2025 was down 3.6% year over year and is down 8.1% since 2022. More important relative to beef imports, production of nonfed beef (from cull cows and bulls) was down 8.0% last year and is down 24.8% since 2022. In fact, nonfed beef production in 2025 was the smallest total since 2005.”
Peel says in a recent Cow-Calf Corner article, increased beef imports are the market response to declining lean beef supplies due to decreased nonfed beef production since most beef imports are lean processing beef. Higher prices of lean beef in the U.S. prompts increased imports from any of several potential beef import sources.
“The amount of beef imports from various sources depends on several factors including: the country’s ability to produce and export; other export markets for the country; and relative price competitiveness of the country, which depends on exchange rates and tariffs the country faces,” Peel explains.
Peel summarizes the top importing countries since 2022:
- Australia — up 251.1%
- Canada — up 4.3%
- Brazil — up 99.9%
- Mexico — down 4%
- New Zealand — up 37.2%
- Uruguay — up 158.8%
“Record high U.S. ground beef prices continue to be the focus of political discussion along with the possibility of increased beef imports to address unprecedented lean beef prices,” Peel says. “It is important to remember that beef imports are limited only by market forces that determine the total quantity and the mix of sources supplying beef to the U.S. market.”
The latest data for January show some interesting changes in beef imports. Total January beef imports were up 7.7% year over year and up 86% compared to January 2022, see Figure 2.
Peel points out the ost noticeable in Figure 2 is the jump in the other category, up 119% from one year ago.
“The biggest part of these other sources is Paraguay, a new player in the beef import market,” he says. “January beef imports from Paraguay were up 147.4% year over year and accounted for 61.1% of the other category and 10.8% of total monthly beef imports. Paraguay has only been exporting to the U.S. since 2024,”
According to Peel Paraguay was able to capture a significant portion of the “Other Country” quota that Brazil has dominated the past four years. January beef imports from Brazil were down 15.1%year over year. Combined January imports from Brazil and Paraguay were up 5.3% year over year. He says this illustrates that markets are determining the total level of imports and also the distribution of sources of beef imports.
Argentina has been the focus of much of the political discussion about beef imports.
Argentina represented 26.1% of the other category and 2.3% of total beef imports in 2025. Peel says Argentina has been granted an expanded tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 2026. Total beef imports from Argentina in 2025 were more than double the previous quota and were limited by market conditions rather than the quota. In January 2026, imports of Argentina were up 122.5% year over year but still represented just 16.1% of other country imports and 2.8% of total January imports (Figure 2).
Peel adds It’s not clear whether Argentina will be able to fill the additional quota this year. The increase would be at the expense of domestic consumption and/or other export markets in Argentina. Increase in beef imports from Argentina would likely displace some imports from other sources.
“Expected growth in beef imports in 2026 will continue to be determined by market forces and may include some relative increase in imports from Argentina,” Peel summarizes.
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