Most of the hype surrounding the U.S. China framework has been about China buying soybeans and even other U.S. ag products like sorghum. But one commodity was left out of the talks: beef. So, how did that even happen?
Until 2025, China was a bright spot for the U.S. beef export market with rising sales. However, that stopped this year and has drug down total beef exports year to date. According to Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO, U.S. beef exports are down about 10% on volume and 8% on value through August.
He says it’s not just a result of tariffs. The biggest issue is the lack of access for U.S. beef plants in China. He reports 400-plus beef establishments were not relisted back in April.
“It’s not demand-related. Demand is booming, especially the high-end, you know, Sams Club, places that are ready to reintroduce U.S. beef when we get the plants relisted,” Halstrom explains.
According to the Meat Institute, in 2024, China was the U.S.’s third largest market, by value, for beef, at more than $1.5 billion.
“The strong beef exports to China were thanks to President Trump’s leadership in securing the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement during his first term,” the Meat Institute reported in a nine-page document — The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets. “However, since the beginning of 2025 — and in contravention of the terms of the Phase One Agreement — China has failed to renew the registrations for more than 415 U.S. beef establishments, making them ineligible to export to China. This is a massive market loss for the U.S. that Brazil and other countries have been eager to fill.”
Ethan Lane, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) senior vice president of government affairs, says NCBA is frustrated beef was not part of the China framework and unsure why it was left out of the discussions.
“We don’t have a good answer to that,” he says. “You know, we were told that was top of the list and that negotiators knew how important that was. What we heard back was that they got some stuff done on soybeans and some other things and that this is a commitment to renegotiate this deal every year moving forward.”
Halstrom says he hopes relisting U.S. beef plants is part of future negotiations.
“We’ve had quite a few plants also delisted for non-tariff trade violations, residues around MGA in particular,” he explains. “So, you’ve got quite a few plants that have actually been delisted twice. There’s some paperwork to be worked through there. But if the Chinese side wanted to get these plants relisted, it’s relatively easy to do. It’s just they have to be instructed to do it.”
Still, Lane says they’ve asked the administration to make it a priority because it’s a problem for producers, packers and the supply chain.
“That’s what we need here is for that negotiation to result in us resuming our access to that market. That was like 13% to 14% of our market and is definitely something producers feel on that carcass,” Lane explains.
So, they’ll keep pushing because China is a key growth area for U.S. beef.
Your Next Reads:
Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen
Sharp Drop in Beef and Pork Exports to China Causes April Meat Exports to Take a Hit
