China
Grain and hog futures were sharply higher on Monday morning as the White House released details of the China trade framework on Sunday which includes $17 billion of ag purchases per year.
After more than a year of waiting, China granted 5-year registration extensions to 425 U.S. beef plants and added new approvals. The move follows Trump–Xi talks in China this week, signaling a trade breakthrough.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are back trading higher with their huge discount to the record cash trade. He says cash trade could get even crazier.
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade hit record levels on Thursday and helped pull futures higher Friday. Grains are trying to recover from the big wash out with crude oil this week.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this cattle market but it fits the profile of a technical top.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were a couple of reasons the market ignored the strike and the biggest was the higher equity markets and lower crude oil
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the grain and cattle futures are reacting negatively to the uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict.
Halstrom says strong global demand is driven by the unique marbling and rich taste of U.S. corn-fed beef, giving it a premium edge in global markets, even in countries that once focused on lower-cost protein.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the USDA Cattle on Feed report was providing some support. The on feed number came in at 98% of a year ago, placements were at 95% which was below trade estimates and marketings were at 87%.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are getting overbought and ran into another layer of chart resistance Wednesday but higher cash could push the market to new highs.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures have been chopping back and forth this week and need to take out last week’s highs on the charts to break out and to new highs.
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher early Monday extending gains after Friday’s higher cash trade says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says after crashing Thursday on fears of a beef plant strike, cattle are recovering on higher cash.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says with the confirmation of no cases of NWS in the U.S. the cattle market should rebound Tuesday. However, with outside markets seeing risk off selling that may temper some of the buying interest in cattle.
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday but Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the recent strength in cattle has been a combination of fund buying and higher cash trade. He predicts that will continue into first quarter of 2026.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw a chart breakout, pushed by fundamental factors. Meanwhile, the soybean market saw technical selling and pressure from mostly favorable weather in South America.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live and feeder cattle futures board has remained sideways since around Dec. 11. However, there is one thing that could break that trend.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures are higher despite some lower Northern cash trade. However, this week the trend has been sideways with the market unable to take out chart resistance.
Officials say 400-plus beef establishments were not relisted by China back in April.
Brad Kooima says both live and feeder cattle futures markets struggled Monday as the huge recovery off the lows put contracts up into 50% retracement levels.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding in the cattle futures if three factors would turn positive.