China
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures were struggling early Thursday with lower cash as the packers are trying to break the market with their own inventory.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures were seeing some profit taking early Friday as they are overbought. However, futures haven’t stayed down long with the strength in the cash market.
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move early Monday but ended well off highs. So can the markets retest the highs?
Cattle futures were lower early Thursday seeing some profit taking after some technical chart breakouts this week, but also positioning ahead of the holiday.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle had a lower week last week on fund liquidation and headlines regarding new NWS cases. However, he’s not sure if the funds are done selling yet.
A case of New World Screwworm (NWS) only 52 miles from Texas was reported by USDA on Thursday making it the closest detection to the U.S. to date. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that is pressuring cattle futures.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says at least initially it looks like the cattle futures had already anticipated the negative report data with the sell off late last week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the pressure came from fund long liquidation and was continuing on Friday with significant chart damage done.
Commodity markets are waiting for one key answer: Does the U.S. really have a deal with China? With only a $17 billion figure and few details, traders want proof through tariffs, export sales and purchases.
Grain and hog futures were sharply higher on Monday morning as the White House released details of the China trade framework on Sunday which includes $17 billion of ag purchases per year.
After more than a year of waiting, China granted 5-year registration extensions to 425 U.S. beef plants and added new approvals. The move follows Trump–Xi talks in China this week, signaling a trade breakthrough.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are back trading higher with their huge discount to the record cash trade. He says cash trade could get even crazier.
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade hit record levels on Thursday and helped pull futures higher Friday. Grains are trying to recover from the big wash out with crude oil this week.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this cattle market but it fits the profile of a technical top.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were a couple of reasons the market ignored the strike and the biggest was the higher equity markets and lower crude oil
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the grain and cattle futures are reacting negatively to the uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict.
Halstrom says strong global demand is driven by the unique marbling and rich taste of U.S. corn-fed beef, giving it a premium edge in global markets, even in countries that once focused on lower-cost protein.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the USDA Cattle on Feed report was providing some support. The on feed number came in at 98% of a year ago, placements were at 95% which was below trade estimates and marketings were at 87%.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are getting overbought and ran into another layer of chart resistance Wednesday but higher cash could push the market to new highs.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures have been chopping back and forth this week and need to take out last week’s highs on the charts to break out and to new highs.
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher early Monday extending gains after Friday’s higher cash trade says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
He thinks cash could be higher again this week.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says after crashing Thursday on fears of a beef plant strike, cattle are recovering on higher cash.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says with the confirmation of no cases of NWS in the U.S. the cattle market should rebound Tuesday. However, with outside markets seeing risk off selling that may temper some of the buying interest in cattle.
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday but Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.