Russian Invasion of Ukraine Overtakes Other Washington Issues as Congress Returns this Week

The House and Senate both return Monday, but to a very different situation due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is expected to be one of the key issues President Joe Biden talks about during his March 1 State of the Union (SOTU) address. President Vladimir Putin on Sunday ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers. Late-breaking news Sunday morning broke that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to negotiate with the Russians, but fighting continues across Ukraine.

Besides Russia and Ukraine, Biden’s SOTU address could take the opportunity to adjust his Covid policy along the lines of the United Kingdom, which last week lifted all remaining COVID-19 restrictions, including a legal requirement that those infected with the virus self-isolate, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks to fully reopen the British economy and society two years after the pandemic hit. Johnson said that with the virus on the wane, government-mandated rules are no longer necessary to stop the spread of COVID-19.

Biden will address a nation that largely sees the economy worsening under his watch, disapproves of his leadership on key issues and currently prefers that Republicans control Congress after the November elections, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. The poll finds Biden’s presidential approval rating at a new low, with 37% saying they approve of the job he is doing and 55% saying they disapprove. Link for details.  Asked whether they would prefer the next Congress to be in the hands of Republicans acting as a check against the president or in Democratic hands to support Biden’s priorities, 50% say they would rather have Republicans in charge on Capitol Hill while 40% prefer the Democrats. On the question of how they would vote in House races if the election were held today, 49% of registered voters say they would support the Republican candidate while 42% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate. The WaPo notes that for comparison, just ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, which saw Democrats score big gains and capture control of the House, it was Democrats who enjoyed a seven-point advantage on this same question.

Biden will also focus on his push for carbon mitigation programs and will likely say agriculture will play a big role in that effort. Congress wants to fund climate change language by around $400 bil. in a revised--and likely newly named--Build Back Better measure. Vilsack has said carbon mitigation could be agriculture’s next revenue stream. But farmers know payouts under any such program must be higher than initial signals.

Biden will attempt to soothe a worried nation faced with geopolitical concerns (Russia, China, Iran, etc.) inflation and rising interest rates once the Fed starts hiking them in March while also beginning to reduce the Fed stimulus, upping fears of a potential downturn in the U.S.... and perhaps world... economy later this year.

Crisis in Ukraine 

Key updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since Saturday’s special report (link): Street fighting broke out in the center of Kharkiv as Russian troops entered Ukraine’s second-largest city.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised statement on Sunday that he was ordering Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on alert, as he continues his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Speaking alongside his defense minister and military chief of staff, Putin said recent sanctions and "aggressive statements" from NATO countries had led him to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty." This is the second time Putin has alluded to Russia's nuclear arsenal while effectively warning the West to back off. In a statement at the onset of the invasion, Putin said anyone who tried to "hinder us" would face "such consequences that you have never encountered in your history."
   
• Israel offers to mediate, broker ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine. Israeli Prime Minister NaftalIsraeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call Sunday he would offer an attempt to mediate and broker a ceasefire between Putin and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kremlin said. Israel has attempted to take a moderate tone on the Russian/Ukrainian crisis. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has condemned Russia, but Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has been careful to speak only of his support for the Ukrainian people.
   
• Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to negotiations with Russia “without preconditions” even as Russian troops bore down on Kyiv and continued their thrust around a number of cities across the country. A statement issued to Zelensky's official channel on the Telegram messaging app said the Ukrainian government would dispatch a delegation to meet with its Russian counterparts on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River. Link to details via the L.A. Times.
   
• If Russia succeeds in taking Kyiv, it will face a protracted, deadly insurgency backed by countries friendly to Ukraine, Douglas London predicts at Foreign Affairs (link). “Putin has badly miscalculated by invading Ukraine,” Melinda Haring writes for the same magazine. “He may find it easy to pull off a swift invasion, but then comes the hard part. The Ukrainian people will never allow Moscow to chart their course or pick their president. The desire for freedom is ineffable, and Ukrainians have proved that they are willing to die for it.” As for Russians, the Economist writes (link) that Russians do not seem at all enthusiastic: “The somber, shamed mood in Moscow could hardly be more different from the euphoria that gripped it in 2014 when Putin seized and annexed Crimea,” the magazine observes.
   
• EU, U.K., Canada, U.S. plan to cut some Russian banks from Swift. The European Union, U.K., the U.S. and Canada announced powerful new sanctions plans, including taking some Russian banks off the Swift financial network and taking measures to paralyze the activities of Russia’s central bank over the Kremlin’s attack on Ukraine. “Russia’s war represents an assault on fundamental international rules and norms that have prevailed since the Second World War, which we are committed to defending. We will hold Russia to account and collectively ensure that this war is a strategic failure for Putin,” the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries wrote in a joint statement that outlined the new measures. Additionally, the leaders committed “to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”
  
  Background: The Belgium-based system is run by its member banks and handles millions of daily payment instructions across more than 200 countries and territories and 11,000 financial institutions. Iran and North Korea are cut off from it. Link to WSJ backgrounder on SWIFT.
   
• G7 countries, all democracies, also vowed to limit the ability of Russian oligarchs with ties to Putin’s government to buy citizenship in other countries and to access their financial systems. They also announced the creation of a task force to oversee the implementation of the new sanctions.
   
• Germany is going to send thousands of weapons to Ukraine, marking a complete reversal in Berlin’s restrictive arms export policy, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledging a jump in military spending and a revamp of the armed forces.