'Red Wave' of Voters Did Not Happen: Why Were Poll Predictions So Far Off the Mark?
Democrats did better than expected on election night and the only wave of the evening was the surprising wins in Florida by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP Sen. Marco Rubio.
As of early Wednesday, the GOP looks to win the House by a modest 5 seats or so while the Senate is close but tilting toward the blue line. Final votes from Nevada and Arizona, coupled with a runoff vote in Georgia, will be the factors tipping the scale.
Randy Russell, president of The Russell Group, told AgriTalk host Chip Flory the Senate control will likely be determined via “showdown” at the runoff vote in Georgia on Dec. 6.
So, what caused the polls to shift away from the predicted ‘red wave’ many had suggested? It comes down to multiple factors.
Blue and Red Factors
Crime was not as big of an issue in voting-day surveys. However, abortion and the Supreme Court Ruling did prove to maintain momentum despite speculations it would fade. Voters passed measures guaranteeing abortion access in California, Michigan and Vermont, while an antiabortion proposal in Republican-leaning Kentucky was trailing early Wednesday.
Trump and his candidates galvanized Dems to vote, and several Trump-pushed candidates lost. It seems possible — as it did after the Georgia runoffs in 2020 — that Trump might have cost his party a very winnable Senate majority with some of his flawed candidates.
Nearly all incumbents survived, however, longtime GOP Rep. Steve Chabot was upset in Ohio for the state’s 1st Congressional District as he lost his race to Democrat Greg Landsman.
Key Farm-State Lawmakers Results
House Ag Chairman David Scott (D-Ga.) and ranking member G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) were easily re-elected and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) also won re-election.
Georgia’s Sanford Bishop and as noted Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger were among Democrats winning close races. Bishop chairs the House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee, while Spanberger chairs the House Ag subcommittee that oversees conservation programs.
What this Means for Farm Bill 2023
Farm bills are difficult to pass in the best of circumstances, according to Russell. With elections nearly in the rearview, he says Rep. G.T. Thompson has his next year’s work cut out for him.
“I think GT’s job got a lot more difficult—assuming these slim margins hold at 5 to 10 seats—when it comes to passing a farm bill,” says Russell. “In the Senate, we still don’t know who the chair will ultimately be, but every member of the Senate Ag Committee that was up for reelection got reelected.”
Of the 50 members on the House Ag Committee, 9 of them either got beat or chose not to run for reelection. And there are still four other races for members on the Ag Committee that haven’t been called yet.
More on farm bill 2023:
As Hearings for the Farm Bill Ratchet Up, You can Do 3 Things to Help Agriculture
Farm Bureau Seeks ‘Unified’ Farm Bill of Ag and Nutrition Aid
