Volatility throughout 2020 creates a difficult challenge to assess the current cattle cycle and longer-term herd dynamics. Here's a glimpse of the data a month prior to USDA's annual inventory report.
Flow of cattle through feedlots should begin to show more consistent tightening in 2021. The beef cowherd was at a peak in January 2019 and led to a 2019 calf crop that was down 0.7 percent from the 2018 peak calf crop.
U.S. global meat protein exports have continued to evolve in 2020. Some of the changes this year reflect ongoing trends in global meat markets but the COVID-19 pandemic has also affected protein trade.
Feedlot placement weight is related to fed cattle finished weight. For cattle in the typical range of placement weights, a one-pound increase in placement weight results in 0.5 pounds of additional finished weight.
Feeder markets are reflecting a mix of influences including seasonal supplies of calves, wheat pasture forage conditions, higher corn prices and volatility in futures markets.
Beef demand has remained remarkably strong since the beginning of the pandemic. Beef demand continues to be challenged with restricted food service, but retail grocery demand remains robust.
The early winter storm in late October brought timely and much-needed rain to much of Oklahoma and sharply reduced drought conditions. Feeder cattle prices jumped sharply from the low two weeks ago during the storm.
