A primary reason feedlot inventories have remained high is due to the continued placement and feeding of heifers. At some point, increased heifer retention will lead to more pronounced decreases in feedlot inventories.
The current cattle market situation creates significant disparities between the current supply and demand situation and expectations for coming supply and demand conditions.
It is critical for consumers to know that there is no shortage of meat in the U.S. In fact, production of beef, pork and poultry are projected at record levels in 2020.
The U.S. and global economy is in uncharted waters. There are many unknowns about the timing, severity and aftermath of the disease. For beef, there are longer-term questions about the overall impact on demand.
Current wholesale beef values are lower year-over-year, but it's too early to gauge what impact the COVID-19 virus has had on both export and domestic beef demand.
The coronavirus is another “black swan” that is different in some fundamental ways from other such events in cattle markets, such as the packing plant fire last year or even the first BSE case in late 2003.
Cattle on feed data shows the largest number of cattle in feedlots during February since 2008, while placements were 99.4% of year ago, a little smaller than expected.
USDA’s latest carcass weights data show steers 12 pounds heavier than last year and heifers 13 pounds heavier than last year, resuming a higher trend after moderating the past three years.
The Cattle report issued by USDA confirms that cyclical herd expansion in the U.S. is over. The numbers indicate that while cattle inventories have stopped growing no major liquidation is underway.
The latest monthly cattle on feed report showed the January 1 inventory in feedlots (over 1,000 head) at 11.958 million head, 102.3 percent of one year ago. This is the largest January on-feed total since 2008.
Widespread wildfires mean Australian cattle and beef production will be reduced for the foreseeable future and rebuilding, whenever it can begin, will take several years.
The new year brings with it several changes in ongoing market dynamics, some new opportunities, and some new risks and continuing challenges for cattle and beef markets.
No matter how cow-calf producers judge the past year – good, just okay or disappointing – there is value in taking some time to analyze the reasons for the outcome.
Sharply higher carcass weights have boosted beef production, though another round of winter weather hitting parts of cattle feeding country may temper that in the last few weeks of the year.
Beef exports were down 9.0 percent in October compared to last year, contributing to a 4.2 percent year over year decrease in beef exports for the first ten months of 2019.
Severe weather inevitably means management challenges and higher costs for producers but may also have market impacts if poor conditions are widespread enough.
USDA's cattle on feed report counted 11.83 million head on feed, which is 101.2% of last year and up 4.8% from October as feedlot inventories increase to a seasonal peak.
Preconditioning programs add value to cattle and the value is consistently reflected in premiums for certified preconditioned calves sold under specific programs.
Boxed beef prices increased about ten percent over the month of October into early November, a significantly higher increase than the normal seasonal bump.
Friday's USDA cattle on feed report pegged heifer numbers at 39.1 of feedlot inventories, the highest percentage in more than 18 years, and year-to-date heifer slaughter is up more than 7%.
Agricultural markets will be impacted by world population growth, economic growth and the expanding middle class, African Swine Fever and the development of alternative proteins.
While many cattlemen were surprised and frustrated with market reactions after the fire, Derrell Peel says the type and duration of price behavior are exactly what is predicted by market economics.
With seven weeks passed since the fire at Tyson's Finney County, Kan. plant, the impacts and resulting ripple effects are clearer now and are fading as expected.
The rapid growth in Chinese beef imports has dramatically altered global beef flows with several countries now exporting a significant share of total exports to China.
As more data becomes available on the aftermath of the fire at the Tyson packing plant, cattle and beef markets are facing increased scrutiny and suspicions.
An early peek at winter grazing budgets highlights the huge uncertainty impacting feeder cattle markets, including grain markets and global economic turmoil.
The fire at Tyson's beef plant was much like throwing a rock into a pond resulting in a big initial splash and ripple effects spreading in all directions. The initial splash included a dramatic set of market reactions.
In the cattle and beef industry, widely varying seasonal price patterns exist for all classes of cattle as well as for each of the many beef products produced in the industry.
China is the major global buyer of cattle hides and demand in China is hampered by tariffs and trade disruptions and by stronger environmental regulations impacting small tanneries.
USDA's mid-year inventory totals suggest that the U.S. cattle herd has reached a plateau. I contrast a plateau with a more typical cyclical peak inventory that historically has implied a liquidation phase to follow.
Uncertainty plagues cattle markets with broader trade and political strife augmented by evolving feed market conditions. How much higher corn will go depends on acreage and yield, both uncertain at this time.
Total federally-inspected beef production was 12.1 billion pounds in the first 24 weeks of 2019, up just 0.7 percent from the same period last year. That is an average production of 502.4 million pounds per week.
According to the Mesonet, the year so far through May 26 is the fourth wettest year on record in the state with the last thirty days the second wettest for the period.
The latest USDA-NASS Cattle on Feed report pegged April 1 feedlot inventories at 11.96 million head, 102 percent of last year and a record April level for the data series, which started in 1996.
Conditions were significantly different in April, 2018 with 34.85 percent of the state in extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought conditions and just 41.72 percent of the state with no drought conditions.