USDA Reports
Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel says record-low cow culling and early signs of impulse heifer breeding suggest stabilization, but significant herd expansion will take time.
USDA reports an all-time August low for feedlot entries; analysts say the long-term price high is not yet in.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while last week’s higher weekly closes send a strong signal a bottom is in place in the cattle market, he’s not ready to say funds will be piling back in to buy yet.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the recovery in the cattle market this week feels good but he is watching for several signs to feel confident about sustaining it.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the Truth Social post from President Trump that 300,000 MT of beef imports will enter the U.S. duty free over the next 90 days to lower beef prices tanked the cattle market early Friday.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle failed at the 50% retracement levels, even with higher cash trade. So, what will it take to get through those resistance areas on the futures?
USDA’s latest cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports confirm the cyclical low is likely behind the industry, but structural headwinds and sky‑high calf prices are keeping expansion cautious and gradual.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle charts look tough right now.
Despite May placements dropping nearly 10%, the June 1 on-feed inventory is the second largest on record. CattleFax’s Patrick Linnell says heavier carcass weights and slower turnover are keeping pens full now, but could chip away at leverage by fall.
Following a major stakeholder meeting, USDA is boosting survey sample sizes and moving data-focused offices out of D.C. to rebuild farmer trust and improve the accuracy of its agricultural reports.
As America’s beef cow herd hits a 75-year low, dairy farmers are stepping in with beef-on-dairy calves to help fill feedlots and keep the beef supply moving.
With the lack of rebuilding the strong cattle market could be extended another year.
USDA’s annual report reveals the smallest total herd since 1951, with beef cow numbers falling to 27.6 million despite a slight uptick in replacement heifers.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says he was concerned the trade might view a slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report placement number as a reason to sell but the market was more focused on the higher cash trade Friday.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says strong cash has been supportive of the cattle futures and he expects a higher week in the fed market again this week. Grains are still digesting USDA’s bearish reports.
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday but Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.
Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are sharply higher on Monday as news came late Sunday that New World Screwworm (NWS) had been detected 70 miles from the U.S. Mexican border. in an 8-month-old calf from a transported herd.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the last time placements and markets were this low was in 2015, which may be signaling heifer retention is starting to take place.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday but after a second week of lower weekly closes, he’s not sure if the market can retest the highs.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher again on Friday morning with the third day of recovery after Tuesday’s melt down. They need to close above Thursday’s highs to have a shot at retesting the record highs.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the uptrend line on the cattle charts is also starting to be violated but that isn’t the only thing he’s watching for a signal of a bigger correction.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the opening after a human case of New World screwworm (NWS) was announced over the weekend.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the placements figure was slightly bearish and will likely mean a lower opening on Monday but the break is likely to be bought.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says both live and feeder cattle futures had a nice recovery and got within striking distance of the all-time highs set earlier in the week.