China
The question now is was this just a correction of the oversold status in the cattle markets? While a higher weekly close is positive, Varilek says recoveries often come in three day waves.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle were limit down early Monday on news that Tyson Foods will be closing its Lexington, Neb. beef processing plant on Jan. 20 and the Amarillo, Texas plant will go down to one shift.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market had been anticipating the tariffs to be lowered on Brazil beef for several days and it was part of the recent selloff in cattle. “So I think a lot of this was already penciled into prices.” he explains.
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
The White House says China will buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028, plus resume U.S. sorghum and hardwood log imports, clearing confusion over comments from Secretary Bessent.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.
Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.
Live cattle are sharply lower with limit down moves in feeders under expanded limits on Monday morning. Brad Kooima says now the focus is on the possibility of the U.S. dropping the 50% additional tariffs on beef imports.
Arlan Suderman says the U.S. is strengthening ties with Argentina to counter China’s growing influence — a global strategy that’s leaving many U.S. farmers and ranchers feeling sidelined.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and feeder quickly pushed to limit down status with fear of the U.S. opening the border to Mexican feeder imports.
Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.
Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says soybeans ended higher on Monday and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week. Cattle tried to recover after Friday’s meltdown and after President Trump comments about the U.S. buying Argentina beef to lower prices for consumers.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying this week after bouncing off key support on the charts. The key is can the markets build on it next week?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says November feeder cattle futures were up over $20 last week and have led the rally on strong cash, tight supplies and the continued cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico keeping the border shut.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $22 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388. Grains see pressure from China trade news.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the market is staying intact and absorbing a great deal of bearish news including last week’s lower fed cash trade and lower cutouts.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says it has been another volatile week in the cattle futures but they are still trading sideways and holding the uptrend lines. Grains are pausing after hitting chart resistance.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday. The cash feeder market has continued to move higher, so will it be able to lead the cattle futures back to new highs?
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures have seen a choppy week but are higher to start Friday after some better than expected cash trade.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were signs in the cattle market prior to Friday’s sell-off indicating the market might be getting toppy. However, does the market negate the reversals like it has in the past?
In what it calls a comprehensive action plan for agriculture security, USDA unveiled seven critical areas the Trump administration will address, and securing and protecting U.S. farmland from being owned by China topped that list.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futuresare showing resilience early Monday due to better than expected cash trade. However, grains are seeing heavy selling pressure.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally. Grains are also higher on hopes of an announced deal with China.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was questioned by several House Ag Committee members about USDA’s cuts, including the impact of the 6,000 DOGE firings at the agency, that were later reinstated by the court.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again. Futures are still chasing record cash.
The markets have several big headlines they’re digesting including news over the weekend that China and the U.S. are de-escalating the tariff war.