Markets - General
Despite the strong political rhetoric at the center of cattle and beef prices, as well as meatpackers seeing major losses, economists say rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd will be the slowest in history.
On a more hopeful note, some industry analysts believe the number has reached its peak and will start to move down this summer. Certainly, some trade deals that would open markets for U.S. ag products would help.
According to the latest USDA data released from the U.S. Meat Export Federation, beef exports to China dropped 70% in April and pork exports fell 35%. With trade talks ongoing, there is optimism for the remainder of the year.
CFTC says expanding trading hours would ensure markets remain vibrant, while commercial hedgers and commodity brokers who work with farmers say it will fuel volatility and won’t make the markets stronger.
Ocean shipping transports about 80% of global trade — from coal and corn to bananas and cement. The revisions tackle major concerns from the global maritime industry that feared virtually every cargo carrier could face steep, stacking fees.
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Farmers and farm groups have mixed reactions and lingering questions following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Will farmers receive aid to offset tariff impact? How will U.S. trading partners react?
Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins confirms those payments will be released before the March 21 current deadline in an exclusive interview with Farm Journal on Thursday morning. She also outlined the timing of the $1 billion just announced to combat avian flu.
Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins kicked off the 2025 Top Producer Summit on Tuesday morning, detailing her plan to advocate for trade. ‘We want to find market access for all our products,’ Rollins said.
USDA’s latest Cattle Inventory report showed U.S. beef cattle numbers fell to the lowest level in 64 years to start the year. Tight supplies and strong demand could push cattle prices to even higher highs in 2025, but uncertainty is infusing more risk and volatility into the markets.
USMEF and Soy Transportation Coalition leaders were among those weighing in on the decision, which could have cost U.S. farmers and ranchers an estimated $1.4 billion a week.
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended imports of live cattle and bison from Mexico on Nov. 22, 2024, following the detection of New World screwworm (NWS) along Mexico’s southern border.
From a possible trade war to brewing discontent within the country, there are five significant trends poised to shape China in the coming year.
If the funding measure fails, USDA has a contingency plan in place for essential workers and services. The plan would retain a small number of administrative employees to oversee activities including disaster response and cybersecurity should funding lapse.
As agriculture faces multiple challenges, USDA’s latest net farm income forecast is masking the reality for farmers. While livestock margins have improved for 2024, high input costs and below breakeven prices for row crops means margins could be the worst in nearly 20 years.
U.S. Meat Export Federation announces new records for volume and value for pork exports will be achieved in 2024. While not as strong, beef exports are holding their own, led by Mexico purchases.
Farmers are still in the driver’s seat, but the direction of land values in the months and years ahead relies on one major factor: how long low profitability for row crop farmers persists.
Harvested fed steer and heifer head counts outpaced the same weeks in 2023, with 501K and 492K in the past two weeks.
The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance is set to expire on Sept. 30. Negotiations between the two parties have stalled, raising concerns about a possible strike starting Oct. 1.
China’s soybean imports reached a record high in August 2024, reflecting significant growth in the country’s demand for the oilseed, but meat imports declined.
U.S. corn prices hit a four-year low as the prospect for record corn and soybean crops takes shape in the field. The eroding outlook also appeared in the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
From increasing difficulty in accessing households due to new telephone technologies to concerns about data privacy and time constraints from farmers, the number of farmers participating in USDA surveys is on the decline.
Ag markets are mostly lower Monday except cattle and nearby soybeans. The record cash cattle trade is trumping the bearish Cattle on Feed Report, says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek.
As drought deteriorates across the U.S., it’s a positive signal for growing a big crop in 2024. And analysts say if weather continues to fuel this year’s crop, December corn futures could fall into the $3 range by fall.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought coverage is now at its lowest level since spring of 2020, but USDA’s topsoil moisture map shows it’s still extremely dry in areas of the west and too wet in the east.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a gauge of economists’ views on the ag economy. While outlooks have grown weaker, it’s the erosion in the future outlook that is sprouting fresh concerns.
Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode, but when asked to rank commodities, economists are the most bullish on beef. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked economists what could impact livestock prices over the next 6 months.