Latest News From Markets - General

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a gauge of economists’ views on the ag economy. While outlooks have grown weaker, it’s the erosion in the future outlook that is sprouting fresh concerns.

Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode, but when asked to rank commodities, economists are the most bullish on beef. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked economists what could impact livestock prices over the next 6 months.

The August Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor asked economists when they think cattle herd expansion will start to take place. The majority think cattle contraction will continue for at least another year. 

The July Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor showed several key changes from June including a bigger cut to corn and soybean yields, a drop in corn and soybean prices and more bullish cattle and hog prices.

The National Drought Mitigation Center estimates 67% of corn and 60% of soybeans are still considered to be in drought, a slight improvement from last week when drought covered 70% of corn and 63% of soybeans.

USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report, including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a new survey of nearly 50 economists. Most ag economists agree the next 12 months could produce more financial pressure for agriculture, but their views vary depending on commodity.

Drought is deepening across the Midwest with 64% of the corn crop and 57% of the soybean crop across the U.S. now covered in drought, a sizable jump in just a week after NASS showed a historic drop in condition ratings.

Last week, 34% of the U.S. corn crop was covered in drought, and this week it jumped to 45%. The second crop conditions ratings of the season from USDA-NASS confirmed dryness is starting to deteriorate crop conditions.

What will the next decade hold for your farm? What factors should you use to weigh investments or crop planning?  Here are five trends and data sets to ponder from USDA's latest Agricultural Baseline Projections.

Here are the key market headwinds ahead for the cattle industry.  

After years of liquidation, the U.S. cattle herd continues to contract. With drought still a driving force behind lower cattle numbers, market experts think cattle price could top previous price records set back in 2014.

Winter weather is packing a punch across much of farm country this week.  However, its being somewhat ignored by the trade. 

Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast.

A rail strike is looming despite the majority of unions reaching tentative agreement with the rail companies, but the unions not on board are essential to the operation of the nation’s rail system. 

Triple digit heat blankets the Southwest this week, and forecasters expect the ridge of high pressure to park over the western Corn Belt next week. AccuWeather projects U.S. corn production could be severely impacted.

Strong basis bids are sparking questions about the reality of corn supplies and issues in getting grain to areas of the country that need it. Analysts are watching USDA's Grain Stocks report this week for answers.

Last week, hot and dry weather fueled commodity markets. This week, the change in the weather forecast, as well as growing concerns about a recession, spurred market speculators to sell.

Heat seemed to be the focus of the markets this week. Two veteran market analysts say if this heat continues, and drought becomes an even larger concern, commodities could see a violent run-up in prices.

Commodity prices won't grow less volatile over the next several months. So, what's a potential game plan for locking in feed prices? Friday's market action may be one example of what producers can do to manage risk.

The commodity markets came under pressure to start the week as traders tried to shed risk over shipping concerns in China as COVID-19 concerns caused officials to shut down transportation amid a two-pronged lockdown.

The fundamentals in both the grain and livestock markets didn't change this week. So, why did prices see such a volatile trading week? Joe Vaclavik and Don Close break down this week's market action on U.S. Farm Report.

Wheat futures were fueled by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis on Wednesday. As a result, front-month wheat contracts hit daily trading limits and soared to a 14-year high.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis sent wheat prices skyrocketing 50 cents higher, with corn up 30 cents at one point Thursday. Crude oil also soared above $100 per barrel, hitting the highest level since 2014. 

A new USDA Market News Mobile Application will provide the supply chain with instant access to current and historical market information, including over 800 livestock, poultry, and grain reports.

Transportation woes continue to haunt Northeast shippers as trucks remain hard to come by and freight rates skyrocket because of rising fuel costs and a scarcity of drivers. 

China said on Saturday it pressed the United States to eliminate tariffs in talks between the countries' top trade officials that Washington saw as a test of bilateral engagement between the world's biggest economies.

An unprecedented meeting held early this month among major cattle industry representatives has now produced plans for change. It's happening while a group of U.S. lawmakers are also asking the DOJ for answers.

Dry weather and poorly timed planting are weighing on Brazil's second corn crop this year, reviving fears of another surge in feed prices like the one that battered big meatpackers after a 2016 drought.

A tradition for more than 100 years will now be a thing of the past. The CME Group announced this week it's not reopening the open outcry pits on the trading floor, which means the tradition will be gone for good.

U.S. data shows COVID-19 infection rates are now down to levels not seen since early fall, a sign economic recovery could also take shape. As more consumers venture out to restaurants, it could also help meat demand.

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum painted a brighter forecast for corn demand this year. While USDA does expect a 7% increase in production, the agency is also forecasting an increase in domestic use, as well as exports.

The USDA February WASDE report released Tuesday revealed expectations for higher beef production this year, a projection the agency says is driven by beefed up cattle slaughter and heavier weights.

With the run-up in stock prices for GameStop, AMC and others, could corn, soybeans or cattle be next? Listen to what Tommy Grisafi of Advance Trading had to say about it on U.S. Farm Report this weekend.

U.S. farmers are facing a changing scenario this year. From wet conditions impeding planting in 2020, to now drought concerns creeping in, one analyst thinks weather could be a major market mover in 2021.

As China builds its domestic stocks of protein like pork, there are fears the country may view its supplies as ample in the second half of 2021. That could put more pressure on domestic demand to carry prices.

COVID-19 outbreaks are increasing governments' food-security concerns, and importers need U.S. corn and soybeans for the first time in a long time to meet demand.

COVID-19, freeze risks, USDA report and government influence on agriculture are all weighing on the markets this week.

CoBank estimates meat supplies at grocery stores could shrink nearly 30% by Memorial Day, leading to prices rising by as much as 20%. Some cattle producers say they are barely hanging on due to futures prices.  

The latest shock to the industry is the daily boxed beef price. On Thursday, it hit a record of $364.62. That is a jump of $30 over Wednesday, a two-thirds increase from the lows in February.

Fears of the coronavirus continue to haunt the stock market despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to calm it. Live cattle prices have dropped to numbers producers and traders haven’t seen in nearly a decade.

AgDay visited a feeder cattle auction at the Shipshewana Trading Place in Shipshewana, Indiana to find out what prices were like there to kick off 2020.

Dive into the headwinds and tailwinds for the four major crops so you can smartly plan your 2020 production and marketing decisions.

How a single packing plant fire shook up the cattle markets.

China has been buying a lot of U.S. pork recently. Yet, the hog market may not see as big of a boost as what producers want with the news. Tyne Morgan discusses why, in this AgDay analysis.

Strong global, domestic demand provides a bright spot for U.S. grain.

The fire at a Tyson beef packing plant in August sparked an explosive reaction in the markets, but was it basic economics that drove prices or something else? Three economists weight in.

However, has there been any progress on other trade deals? With the markets swinging up and down during Monday's trading session, what is happening? AgDay and U.S. Farm Report reporter Betsy Jibben has the story.

Cattle feeding margins are rapidly declining as cash cattle prices retreat from spring highs

2020 Democrats try to make inroads in rural America 2020 Democrats try to mak