Cattle Market Reports and Analysis
With the prospects for tight cattle numbers over the next 2 to 3 years, the importance of consumer demand will be critical.
Tight cattle supplies will remain the primary driver in the new year and weather will have a significant impact on feed and forage availability, and cattle marketing patterns.
Cattle harvest was down last week, but carcass weights remain record breaking. Q4 tends to be the period most prone to follow historical seasonal patterns for carcass cutout prices.
Heifers made up 39.7 percent of the total feedlot inventory on Oct. 1, up slightly from the 39.6 percent in July.
Harvested fed steer and heifer head counts outpaced the same weeks in 2023, with 501K and 492K in the past two weeks.
Annual five-state beef conference hosted by beef extension teams from Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas will be held Sept. 30 and Oct. 1.
Futures markets have always been a source of consternation. The reason for angst generally falls on the speculators, but that blame is often misplaced.
Changes in trade will result in relatively minor market adjustments but will not change the level or trajectory of U.S. cattle prices.
Cash prices in the North surged higher on active trade volumes while the South posted modest gains on light to moderate volume. Feeder cattle and calf prices were mixed.
Packers reluctant bidders as futures remain significantly discounted to cash. Feedyards content with standoff late in the week.
Cash cattle prices trade higher for a fifth consecutive week and on feed inventories continue to shrink seasonally. Cattle on feed numbers matched pre-report estimates.
Wholesale beef prices staged an impressive rally this week, leading the cash and futures markets higher. Packers’ marketing leverage remains elusive.
Carcass marbling has benefitted from extra days on feed and heavier carcass weights resulting from current market conditions. Thus, the beef from fed cattle is historically quality-rich for this time of the year.
Higher asking prices meet resistance and feeders find security in cash/futures basis strength. A similar standoff pattern shapes up for this week.
Record prices bring consumer demand to the forefront, particularly in an inflationary economy where consumers are financially pinched and we must remember demand includes both the willingness and the ABILITY to buy.
Lawmakers sent a letter to Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack, urging him to reverse the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) decision to cancel or discontinue several National Agricultural Statistics Service reports.
March beef exports were down 8.2% from last year following an annual decrease in 2023. Meanwhile, March beef imports were up 10.6%.
Cattle markets have settled into the knowledge that HPAI H5N1 avian influenza has relatively minor impacts on cattle and has no human health implications for meat or pasteurized dairy products.
After a mostly sluggish April, market-ready fed cattle saw a solid rally in the North and steady money in the South. Futures markets began to look past the psychologically bearish H5N1 virus news.
While the heifer percentage in feedlots remains above the average of the past ten years, the decline from January to April is an encouraging sign that heifer feeding is perhaps slowing.
Cash cattle markets edged lower and while wholesale beef and futures markets were mixed. Cattle on Feed totals were up for the seventh consecutive month and placements lower than expected.
Cattle and hog feeders are benefitting from dramatically lower grain and feed costs this year while live animal sale prices are higher. Profit margins for both species have doubled in the past month.
Carcass weights have trended heavier for over 60 years with steer carcass weights increasing by an average of 4.0 pounds per year, up over 240 pounds from 660 pounds in the 1960s to over 900 pounds in recent years.
Declining cattle futures provided leverage for packers to collect inventory with softer bids.
Negotiated cash cattle prices moved lower again under pressure from sinking futures markets. The red-hot hamburger market kept pushing most utility cows higher.
USDA is Discontinuing A Major Cattle Report, And it Could Now Spur More Volatility For Cattle Prices
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced it’s canceling the July Cattle Inventory Report. In the announcement, NASS blamed budget cuts from the most recent appropriations bills.
NASS said the decision to discontinue select surveys was necessary given appropriated budget levels. NCBA noted its objections to the plan.
Finished cattle, feeders, calves and the futures markets were all in retreat as the HPAI event becomes the latest beef industry black swan.
The latest data on steer weights shows 23 pounds heavier than a year ago at 922-pounds, record-high for the first two weeks in March. That’s a sharply higher trend line in a time when weights historically trend lighter.
Packers were quick to act on last week’s falling futures, but cattle feeders held firm in a week that could have moved much lower.