Brazil
Cattle futures posted lower weekly closes and Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade hit record levels on Thursday and helped pull futures higher Friday. Grains are trying to recover from the big wash out with crude oil this week.
Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer. With U.S. production down 3.9%, analysts point to Brazil’s feed capacity and rising imports as key drivers of this historic market shift.
While U.S. beef production fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, Brazil’s beef production surprisingly increased. Rabobank, for example, expected a decline, but now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent in Brazil.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw a chart breakout, pushed by fundamental factors. Meanwhile, the soybean market saw technical selling and pressure from mostly favorable weather in South America.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures are higher despite some lower Northern cash trade. However, this week the trend has been sideways with the market unable to take out chart resistance.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa.
The change reverses part of a July trade action that had imposed elevated import duties on multiple categories of Brazilian goods and is the latest effort by the Trump administration to bring grocery prices down.
Cattle market fundamentals remain unchanged while psychology shifts the market due to the President’s comments and industry interference.
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Live cattle are sharply lower with limit down moves in feeders under expanded limits on Monday morning. Brad Kooima says now the focus is on the possibility of the U.S. dropping the 50% additional tariffs on beef imports.
Arlan Suderman says the U.S. is strengthening ties with Argentina to counter China’s growing influence — a global strategy that’s leaving many U.S. farmers and ranchers feeling sidelined.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped lower on the opening Friday and feeder quickly pushed to limit down status with fear of the U.S. opening the border to Mexican feeder imports.
Soybeans futures hit new highs for the move on Thursday as Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says there is growing optimism about a trade deal with China that will include soybean purchases.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw some recovery on the opening Monday after a melt down on Friday which produced limit down closes in most of the feeder cattle contracts.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn, soybeans and wheat all saw technical buying this week after bouncing off key support on the charts. The key is can the markets build on it next week?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds were liquidating long positions on the open Friday after President Donald Trump said the administration was working on a plan to lower beef prices. Some of it was triggered by algorithm trades that key their formulas off headlines.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $22 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388. Grains see pressure from China trade news.
Industry leaders expect continued momentum for Brazilian meat exports through year-end, supported by resilient demand and expanding access to strategic markets.
Increasing carcass size, global methane research and beef on dairy were some of the key topics discussed during the 2025 BIF Symposium.
Agriculture is an export dependent business. At peak uncertainty, the industry could go either way: Gain ground with new trade deals or take a big hit as exports further decline.
The administration created a “top 10 list” that includes the fishing industry, agricultural land deforestation in Brazil that impacts beef and soy production and Mexican avocados produced on illegally deforested lands.
The majority of respondents in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war, but who wins? Ag economists say it’s not the U.S., Canada or Mexico but rather Brazil that could come out on top.
JBS announced construction is underway in Brazil on a cultivated protein research and development center.
A case of Atypical BSE, or mad cow disease, was confirmed in the northern state of Para, Brazil on Wednesday. However, the real question is—when did this case actually occur? USCA and NCBA leaders share their thoughts.