Few topics generate more controversy or column inches than obesity. Everyone has an opinion, a judgment and a prescription, but to date none have been effective, especially for the broad population.
Globally, 40% of the population is defined as overweight or obese. For the first time in history the number of overweight people is almost double the number who go to bed hungry. The challenges of finding effective weight management solutions, and the treatment of health issues caused by being overweight, are overwhelming our health care systems.
Declared a miracle weight loss solution, the arrival of GLP-1 drugs (such as Ozempic) promise to change weight management and with it the consumption of food, forever.
Ozempic and drugs like this suppress appetite and have been shown to reduce calorie intake by up to 800 calories per person per day. Pharmaceutical companies are now racing to develop pills as alternatives to injectables, both to enhance accessibility and reduce costs.
The race is intensified by the patent expiration of semaglutide as soon as 2026 in countries such as Brazil, China and India. Today 15.5 million American adults are reportedly using these drugs and this is projected to grow to 9% of U.S. adults by 2030. The global market for GLP-1 drugs, already valued at $47 billion is expected to increase tenfold by 2032.
Producers, packers, backgrounders and even cow-calf producers might not be paying attention yet, but they should.
GLP-1 users report reducing their consumption of food dramatically, describing fullness or satiety, and even more dramatically a reduced desire to eat fatty and processed foods. Analysts predict up to a 20% reduction in U.S. calorie consumption by 2035 due to these drugs, with users curbing their consumption of alcohol, cigarettes, soda, baked goods, salty foods and even fibrous foods, as a result of discomfort, diarrhea or constipation caused by the consumption of those foods.
Economic Impact of GLP-1
The appetite-suppressing effect of GLP-1 drugs has significant economic implications, especially with the projected decline in calorie consumption across the U.S.
A study by Walmart in October 2023 linked decreased food sales to the growing use of Ozempic among consumers, particularly in categories like sweets and snacks. Similarly, Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2035, as many as 9% of Americans could be using these medications, potentially reducing the consumption of items such as soft drinks, alcohol and salty snacks by up to 4%. University researchers reported that users overall reported a lower desire for dairy, starchy, salty and spicy foods, and that the range of foods they wanted was lower (particularly high-fat, non-sweet foods).
There are both opportunities and threats in the way that GLP-1 will affect food providers. If cravings can be controlled, junk-food companies and advertisers may have to shift their focus from quantity to quality or re-formulate their products and messages. Some food manufacturers are already launching product lines tailored to consumers on GLP-1 drugs. For example, Nestlé, Danone and Coca-Cola are developing high-protein, low-sugar options to align with the changing market landscape.
GLP-1 drugs will impact consumer demands and expectations. Even if only 9% of the population is actively using a semaglutide in six years time, that will be heavily skewed to wealthier consumers, who are trend setters. They will want foods that they can enjoy while taking the medication.
In turn, their food preferences will work their way through social networks, which will inevitably affect food prices and market dynamics, from farm to retail. The already growing demand for generally healthier food options will meet the demand for foods adapted to use in conjunction with GLP-1, and push food providers to respond to changing tastes.
Speculating about the full scale of this change is hard to do, but it seems that leaner cuts, high protein snacks such as beef jerky, proteins made with meat products and more will flourish while fattier cuts will suffer. What does this mean for genetic selection, sex separate feeding, cattle management and nutrition choices. Will it favor feed additives and animal health interventions that favor protein accretion and muscle building at producer level?
Key Takeaways
GLP-1 drugs are bound to change the health landscape dramatically — from obesity to stroke reduction, improved mental and physical health, reduced kidney disease risk, and potential Alzheimer’s and addiction treatments. But the long-term implications of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic transcends weight loss. GLP-1 drugs are already reshaping broader trends, including consumer habits and agricultural practices. These changes present opportunities and challenges for beef producers and likely to require rapid adaptation.
Food companies and retailers have already started to adapt their offerings, but most have not. The question and challenge for the beef industry is being able to recognize when change is in the wind and prepare for it. What would a shift toward higher protein, leaner and Ozempic user-friendly foods mean for beef. Are you ready?
Aidan Connolly is president of AgriTech Capital, an advisory, consulting and investment group involved in agri innovation. A contributor to Forbes who describe him as ‘a farm and food futurologist’ he is the author of ‘The Future of Agriculture’, which has now been translated into four languages.
