Editor’s Note: This article is part of the Drovers 2024 State of the Beef Industry report, which includes an exclusive survey of cattle producers and their thoughts on numerous topics of importance to the future of their operations. To download the full report, click here.
The industry typically receives a mid-year snapshot of cattle inventories from USDA. At this stage in the cattle cycle, the report would provide insights into the state of expansion.
Unfortunately, the survey and resulting report were canceled this year due to budgetary constraints at USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS). CattleFax joined other industry groups emphasizing the importance of the report and requesting NASS reconsider.
In the absence of the report, CattleFax has estimated inventories for all classes of cattle to provide the important perspective. While these estimates are not based on the producer-level survey work NASS conducts, inventories can still be estimated within a relatively narrow margin of error via other data sets.
Cows and Heifers
Beef cow inventories are estimated to be 400,000 below a year ago. Beef cow slaughter has been down sharply but not enough to overcome the record-low bred heifer inventory as of Jan. 1, 2024, most of which have now calved and would be counted as cows.
Beef replacement heifer inventories are likely steady to slightly higher but remain historically tight, estimated up a narrow 50,000 head from last year. Spring 2023-born heifers were likely retained and bred at a stabilization pace, with numbers roughly even with year-ago. A few more heifers might have been retained from the fall 2023 calf crop, although this is a smaller percentage of the nation’s herd. The expectation is for a mild expansion pace of heifer retention this fall.
Dairy Cows
Dairy cow inventories are also likely steady to slightly smaller, estimated 50,000 head lower due to a shortage of replacements coming into the year, despite a steep decline in dairy cow slaughter. The dairy replacement heifer shortage, largely due to the beef-on-dairy revolution, will remain a headwind to stabilization and growth of the herd in the near term.
Calves and Feeders
The July report also contained the first estimate of the current year’s calf crop. CattleFax expects the 2024 calf crop to be 700,000 fewer head, a record low, reflecting a smaller breeding herd coming into the year. The smaller calf crop will continue to translate into tighter feeder cattle and fed cattle supplies down the road.
With total on-feed numbers up 100,000 head from year-ago, the feeder cattle and calf supply remaining outside of feedyards would be down 850,000 head or 2.5% from last year, also record small. The July 1 outside supply figure would include the new spring-born calf crop as well as the remaining 2023-born feeder cattle and calves.
Bottom Line
Despite the absence of the July Cattle Inventory report, CattleFax estimates, based on numerous other data sets, cattle inventories will continue to tighten, but with mixed signs of stabilization. Expansion and retention patterns will be closely monitored this fall with confirmation in January 2025’s inventory report.
Reprinted with permission from CattleFax.
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