The team at Wells Fargo has assembled its Fourth of July Food Report to detail what to fill the grill with and what to put a little less on the picnic table with food inflation in mind.
“Food inflation has definitely started to slow down, and this is good news for consumers. However, it still won’t be cheaper to celebrate the Fourth of July this year,” says Dr. Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Chief Agricultural Economist. “The reason stems from the current pricing for some of the key menu ingredients.”
Swanson highlights four key takeaways from the meat sector:
- The current average is $5.36 per pound for ground beef, which is up less than 1% from a year ago. Last year’s inflation rate on ground beef was 16%.
- Chicken breasts are 2% lower than last year (average $4.24 per pound)
- Pork chops are up 1% from a year ago
- Sirloin steak is up 2.9% from a year ago
To top the hamburgers, processed cheese has gone up 10% compared with last year.
Bread and bun prices are elevated due to the increase in wheat prices attributed to the war in Ukraine. Bread is up 22% compared to last year.
Potato chip prices are up 15% last year, attributed to drought in the key potato growing areas in Idaho and the Dakotas.
Swanson says to complement chips, he expects to see a 9% increase in various dip prices as well.
A segment showing relief from its notable high levels is eggs, Swanson says this is good news for potato salads, deviled eggs and other sides.
“The Avian Influenza shock has just about left the stage. A dozen eggs currently costs $2.67, 7% lower than a year ago. While down from $4.82 a dozen at the start of the year, disease risk and inflation remain big issues,” he says.
For dessert, ice cream is up 9% compared to 2022. And chocolate chip cookies are up 14% higher.
In the cooler, Swanson reports inflationary effects on soft drinks were slow to rise, but due to higher labor and packaging costs, the category is now up 14% compared to last year.
Beer prices are up 8%. Wine prices are flat.
However, he remains optimistic for celebrations.
“Food retailers and consumers should expect a busy and robust celebration for this year’s Fourth of July, even with higher prices,” Swanson says.
