Has the hype cooled for plant-based meat alternatives? Purdue economist Jayson Lusk thinks so.
“For a while, plant-based meat alternatives had a meteoric rise in market shares. Although the threats haven’t gone away, they certainly have cooled off in recent years,” he said during the Midwest Pork Conference on Dec. 6 in Lebanon, Ind.
Sales have been falling, Lusk said. From November 2021 to November 2022, sales for plant-based meat alternatives are down 20%.
In the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability’s (CDFAS) October report, a survey of consumer behavior that tracks trends in food demand, satisfaction, food security and other food sustainability behaviors, it showed that households without children rarely choose plant-based proteins over animal proteins with a score of 2.3 on a scale of 1-5. Households with children sometimes choose plant-based proteins over animal proteins with a score of 3.
“Some of what drove the growth initially was the variety/novelty factor,” Lusk explained. “It was something new.”
However, the higher price point of plant-based alternatives in this era of high price inflation has almost certainly had a dampening effect on sales, he added.
Jayson Lusk encourages producers to keep an eye on industry threats during the 2022 Midwest Pork Conference. Photo by Jennifer Shike.
What Consumers Are Saying
In CDFAS’ meat sentiment dashboard that tracks the volume and sentiment of online meat conversations, plant-based alternatives generally have a negative net sentiment and simply aren’t talked about much.
“When people talk about plant-based meat alternatives, it’s not very positive,” Lusk said. “This suggests the hype is starting to dissipate or is not all that broad based at the moment.”
But he warns livestock producers not to stop paying attention to competitive threats.
“International organizations are pushing for more plant-based diets. I don’t think those pressures will go away. They will be with us for some time, and it will continue to be a headwind for the industry,” Lusk noted. “Sustainability is very closely linked to productivity improvement. We are continuing to see strong demand and future growth will likely be internationally.”
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