What Does the China Announcement Really Mean for the Beef Industry?

China’s decision to approve U.S. beef plants for export is the kind of headline that grabs attention in cattle country. But economist John Nalivka urges producers to read past the first line before they start banking on bigger exports. From his perspective, the announcement is important — but it’s only Step 1, and he’s not ready to call it a game‑changer just yet.

China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) granted a five-year registration extension to 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s Food Import Food Establishment (CIFER) system, a critical step toward restoring market access for U.S. beef. Additionally, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations were added to the CIFER system, with registrations valid for five years. While some U.S. beef establishments remain suspended from exporting to China, a White House fact sheet posted on Sunday states that China will work with U.S. regulators to lift all suspensions of U.S. beef facilities.

“They have approved the plants that have been sitting on hold for export certification, so that’s a big step,” Nalivka says. “But to say we’re going to take X number of tons of U.S. beef, that’s the next issue.”

Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO, says, “This is great news; it’s even better news for our customers in China who have been clamoring to resume access to U.S. beef. These customers are ready, willing and able to go. The other thing that was encouraging in the release from the White House was that not only are we getting these plants relisted, we also have issues with plants that have been suspended, and USTR is working on that as we speak. So, that’s part of the announcement as well, to work on getting those other plants re-engaged as well — so some very good outcomes from last Friday.”

Halstrom was a guest on AgriTalk Monday. He summarizes the Trump–Xi meeting last week in China was the kind of “watershed event” needed to break loose long-standing non-tariff barriers. He notes that under the 2020 Phase One agreement, plants were supposed to be reviewed and automatically relisted every five years, as happened with pork, but not beef.

Nalivka stresses China’s approval is a sign of strong global demand for high‑quality U.S. beef. The move comes at a time when cattle producers are finally seeing record prices stick. That’s why Nalivka is both encouraged and cautious. With beef prices already at record highs, he says the industry will need to balance export ambitions with tight domestic supplies and a complex import picture.

“On the one hand we’re talking about record-high beef prices, and then we’re talking about exports. We need the export business, there’s no doubt about it,” he explains. “But you know, one does support the other.”

Nalivka cautions against viewing exports in isolation.

“If you’re going to export, you also have to import. It takes both sides of that,” he says, pointing to the role imported lean grinding beef plays in keeping hamburger supplies and prices in check. As China potentially buys more U.S. product, Nalivka says the industry must do a better job explaining why imports — especially lean trim — are part of the same success story.

With cow slaughter down, domestic supplies of lean trim are tight. Nalivka warns that if the U.S. tries to grow exports while choking off imports, consumers would feel it at the meat case.

“We do this in order to make sure we have the supply of that lean grind so we can produce hamburger,” he says. “People think $6 a lb. hamburger is high. Well, let’s take the imports away and then let’s see where the price of hamburger is.”

Nalivka summarizes the plant registration approval opens the door, but it doesn’t tell the industry how far China is willing to walk through it.

(USMEF)

What Beef Products Does China Buy?

According to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), beef exports to China are a “win-win” for ranchers and consumers. On product mix, China’s demand focuses on variety meats and underutilized cuts, not middle meats.

“‘Variety meats’ going to China add an additional $165 to the value of each animal for producers and no increased costs for consumers — driving investment in building out our herd to feed Americans for years to come,” FAS posted on X.

Historically, China has been a top-three purchaser of tongues, tripe and tendons plus the No. 1 purchaser of hides and skins. These products are rarely consumed by Americans who crave burgers, briskets and steaks.

“There’s a hidden benefit with China as well,” Halstrom says. “Simply having China in the market, because the product mix is pretty common across Asia — Japan, Korea, Taiwan as well as China — you’re going to see a halo effect on pricing for all of these markets. Items like short plate, for example, have the potential to have $1 to $2 per lb. increases in price just from having China back on the world stage.”

What is China’s Role in Global Beef Market?

“The role of China in global beef markets has changed rapidly in the past two decades,” says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “China, including Hong Kong, was not a player at all in global beef markets as little as 15 years ago but has risen rapidly to become the largest beef importer in the last decade.”

(Oklahoma State University)

Peel says for many years, China was a large beef-producing and consuming country but had almost no presence in global beef markets. Starting about 2013, rising beef consumption in China began to exceed domestic beef production, leading for the first time to significant beef imports.

Although per capita beef consumption in China remains relatively low — roughly 13 lb. compared to 59 lb. in the U.S., the large population means that small increases in beef consumption represent large amounts of beef in total. Peel says as a result, China and Hong Kong quickly became the largest beef-importing country, surpassing the U.S. by 2017. As recently as 2022, China and Hong Kong accounted for more than 35% of global beef imports.

(Oklahoma State University)

Part of the growth in beef imports in China and Hong Kong included increased exports of U.S. beef to China. Peel explains Hong Kong was a significant beef export market in the 2010s, representing as much as 16% of total U.S. beef exports, and was the No. 3 export market.

“It was generally recognized that a portion of exports to Hong Kong were subsequently transshipped into China,” Peel says. “After the U.S. achieved official access to China, beef exports began to grow, with exports to Hong Kong decreasing as expected (see Figure 3). For this reason, data from China and Hong Kong are combined, although still reported separately.”

(Oklahoma State University)

In 2025, with tariffs in place and U.S. access to China revoked, exports to China and Hong Kong decreased sharply, although beef exports to Hong Kong increased to slightly offset the total decrease. Peel says this is due to different political responses in Hong Kong. The China and Hong Kong share of U.S. beef exports dropped from 18.7% (third-largest) to 10.4% of total beef exports and fourth-place among beef export destinations.

“While China and Hong Kong quickly grew to be a major U.S. beef export market after 2020, the U.S. share of total China and Hong Kong beef imports has been relatively small,” Peel says. “The U.S. share of total beef imports in China and Hong Kong peaked at 8.8% in 2022 and dropped to 3.7% in 2025. There is no doubt China and Hong Kong generally represent significant beef export potential for the U.S. in the absence of political barriers.”

Figure 4 shows the dramatic loss of China and Hong Kong beef exports in 2025 relative to other major beef export markets. Decreased beef exports to China and Hong Kong accounted for 68% of the total decrease in U.S. beef exports in 2025.

“The impact of this loss in U.S. beef market was largely unrecognized simply because the domestic U.S. market was so strong and trending higher,” Peel says. “Under different market circumstances, the impact would be much more evident. Part of the future prospects for herd rebuilding and increased beef production in the U.S. will depend on maintaining and building robust beef export markets, and China and Hong Kong will certainly be a key component.”

(Oklahoma State University)

For producers, the China deal is welcome news — but it lands in an environment where every pound of beef is already in high demand. The real story for producers will unfold as we see how much product China actually buys, and how U.S. manages the delicate balance between high domestic prices, export growth and the imports that keep the hamburger case full.