Cornett: Shoot Where the Duck is Going
In our part of the world, there are a lot of stock water ponds impounded behind watershed dams. They are a popular place for ducks to congregate and quack during the winter. As a kid, with a new-used bolt-action, .410, I liked to sneak up over the dam and shoot at them.
I didn’t have much luck. One day my dad came with me. The flock jumped and it looked like so many ducks you couldn’t help but hit one. So my dad watched and said, “which one were you shooting at?” And I said, “all of them.”
“No,” he said. “You have to pick one duck and shoot him.”
Next trip, I reported still no luck. So my dad went again and watched as I, as instructed, picked one duck and missed him.
And my dad, a wise man, said: “Don’t shoot where the duck is. Shoot where he’s going to be.”
Which is how I found out that dead mallard doesn’t taste very good. Greasy.
But it’s a lesson I think some young cattle folk need to consider.
Those congressional hearings left me suspecting that we may have a law requiring USDA to establish some sort of mandated cash trade. And I see that Bill Bullard says the return of mandatory country of origin labeling is a matter of “when, not if.”
I’ve doubts, previously expressed, about the wisdom of both moves but the tenor of my feedback convinces me I’m either in the minority or the silent majority.* Still, I think we’re shooting where the duck is instead of where he’s** going to be.
These new laws, if they indeed happen, are not going to save independent cattle producers. Here’s what will save independent cattle producers: independent cattle producers. Make that, “some” independent cattle producers. Because some of us won’t make it. Sorry. We live in America. Big old rat race. Good ideas. Bad ideas. Good luck. Bad luck. Winners. Losers.
The industry is changing. Cattle producers have to change with it. Oh, not most cattle producers. Most producers have cows as a hobby; a little supplemental income to support their real jobs and maybe teach the kids about chores. Those folks don’t really have to adjust unless they want to. They can continue to take what the market throws at them. Below average is good enough.
But, something like 10% of cow owners (at the last census) own a hunnert* or more cows.. So, when we say, “independent producer,” to whom do we refer? That’s an important question to me because, fact is, I don’t think we need to structure this industry so lawyers and retired magazine guys can overpay for land to run hobby cows. I mean, that’s fine and good but the industry needs to structure itself to make beef that consumers want*** at a price they’re willing to pay.
This sustainability thing is apparently here to stay. Doubt it? Google any major packer and the word “sustainability.”
Or move a little further down the chain.
H*E*B
Go on googling and you’ll find that the consolidated world wants “sustainability” and they’re going to want a paper trail. This is NOT something my dad or granddad would welcome. Not sure I do, in fact. Sounds like a bunch of paperwork to me. And maybe doing some things I maybe know I should do but don’t want to be told I have to do. And I’m guessing those even-smaller producers aren’t going to be enthusiastic about it, either. I suppose there will be a kinda market for cattle that don’t fit that new paradigm, but then, there’s a kinda market for roped-out Corrientes and feral hogs.
But discounts are going to widen. The upcoming market may be good enough to hide it for a while—everything will have more value than it has the last few years—but the good is going to get very gooder and the bad is only going to get a little gooder until, a few years from now, it gets badder.
The world around us has changed and it’s changing faster. Consolidation—not just packers, but suppliers and retailers--has impacted costs and markets. Science and technology offer new tools faster than most of us can adopt them. (But, crucially, not faster than some of our fellow producer/competitors can.) Demand for land has changed. The Ted Turners and all the lawyers and doctors that want to own “a nice ranch” to supplement their beach condos have turned grass country from homesteads to luxury investments.
Cattle people of the future will have to fit into that. And they will have to increasingly realize that they are competing not with packers but with each other. It’s not packers who’ve run the price of a bred cow up these last 50 years. It’s other producers bidding on that cow…or that bull… or those feeder steers. And those guys are making profits despite the higher costs. Despite the packer margin.
This is the world now. I may not want to learn about sustainability and do more stuff to comply, but my competition will. I may think AI and continual improvement is too much trouble, but I’ve got competitors who are willing to make the investment. I may not want to EID my calves just because Tyson or National wants to market them into a source-verified program, but the guy bidding against me to lease the land that lawyer or TV star just bought sure may be. And he’ll have more dollars to play with.
I am an older gentleman. About the only change I welcome is a new grandbaby. I may resent the idea of having to adopt—and verify--sustainable practices just because the corporations that buy and market beef demand it or pay extra for it. But somebody else will. And then maybe they’ll talk to my landlord about paying a little more than I am. Or come in and offer me more for my country than I can justify on my meager earnings.
Maybe I’m overreacting to the negative feedback. But I get the idea these last few weeks that lot of cattle producers think the government is going to save them when, in fact, they need to save themselves. Geez, I hate sounding preachy. But there you have it.
All those cattle operations that went out of business in the years since I started? Packers didn’t drive them out of business. Other producers drove them out. When prices are low, people get bought out because prices are low. When prices are high, people get bought out because prices are high.
Curse the packers. Curse the regulations. Curse the weather. But don’t suppose you’re going to prosper because “things” get better. You’ll prosper because you get better. And that means pick a duck and shoot where they’re**** going to be. Reach me at Scornett9163@yahoo.com
* Again. And I swore some years ago I would never preach to the choir. I see no reason to tell folks what they already think. I’m not running for office. And, by the way, I’ve read soooo many different takes on those congressional hearings—from consumer media and politicians and cattle folks on both sides of the issues—that it seems we all saw different hearings. Everybody gets a fact to love and a fact to hate.
**Sorry, young folks, to use that sexist pronoun. It’s just he/she seems unnecessarily clumsy when you’re talking about duck gender. And I’m too old to go to that “they” pronoun unless the duck expressly requests it.
**Don’t lay that packer lover on me again. Said before and will again I’m as suspicious as anybody but I don’t know they illegally cahoot. I don’t know why they’d have to, for that matter. The government requires them to tell each other what they’re paying and getting. But that JBS settlement smells to me like a used AI glove and I still want somebody with a badge to sniff it and report back.
***A hunnert cows is my historic threshold for being a person who depends on cows for his livelihood. Based on an old South Texas cowman years ago telling me that “year-in, year-out, a hunnert paid-off cows is as good as having a school teacher wife.” Health insurance was cheaper then, I suppose. But if you own your land, stock to avoid a lot of extraneous feed costs, and have a decent set of cows, might not be far off today. A guy could survive on it. (But that’s easy for a man my age to say. A guy trying to finance cows on rented land could still be forgiven for an ad that says something like “Cowman ISO comely to fairly comely school marm. Expertise with barbwire gates and trocars a plus. )
****I think that realization is what sank in on NCBA back in the 90’s and led to so much controversy about them being pro-packer. The guys began to see themselves as part of a chain. Like, with strong links relying on weak links, you know? Began to pay attention to making a product the other links could build on. It’s apparently helped beef demand a lot, but there seems to be a lot of rancor. Enough, if Bullard is right about the inevitability of another round of COOL, to weaken NCBA’s standing in Washington.
*****See what I mean about pronouns? The whole darned allegory is about picking one duck. Like making a plan. But when I try the new journalism, I wind up having to use a plural pronoun to describe one duck. I should have started with a hen, I guess. Then I could have said “she.” Less confusing, but I’d have to rewrite and this gig is way too underpaid for that much effort.
