Modest gains for grains and soybeans overnight... Corn futures are steady to fractionally higher amid light followthrough buying. Soybeans are steady to 2 cents higher as traders take a breather from aggressive selling and note the market’s oversold condition. Wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher, as are crude oil futures.
White House to unveil new ObamaCare repeal deal today... The White House is expected to release the text of a new proposal today that would give states the power to opt out of certain ObamaCare insurance mandates, in a major attempt to revive ObamaCare repeal as early as this week, with most saying that is an optimistic timeline. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), chairman of the Freedom Caucus, said after meeting with Vice President Mike Pence and White House officials that he expects the text of the new compromise today.
HRW crop ratings erode over the winter... When USDA’s winter wheat crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW wheat crop came in at 328.79 points, down 19.09 points since USDA’s last rating on Nov. 28, 2016. The crop is now rated 26.45 points below year-ago. Kansas led the decline, dropping 8.60 points. On the other hand, the SRW crop improved marginally (0.75 points) over the winter and is rated roughly 4 points below year-ago levels at 372.79 points. Get more details.
Cordonnier raises soybean crop estimate... South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate another 1 MMT this week to 109 MMT, and he has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. “Yields keep getting bigger and bigger,” he explains, adding that AgRural reports harvest was 74% complete late last week versus 76% the year prior. He made no change to his corn crop estimate, which stands at 88 MMT, though he does have a neutral to higher bias. Cordonnier made no change to his Argentine soybean or corn crop estimates that stand at 56 MMT and 37 MMT, respectively.
Argentine wheat exports rose 23% year-over-year in December and January... In December and January, Argentina shipped 3.95 MMT of wheat, according to the agroindustry ministry. From December to mid-March, sales to exporters were up 129% year-over-year at 8.73 MMT, while sales to local industry were up 51%, at 2.36 MMT.
Slight dip in ICAC’s 2017-18 carryover peg... The International Cotton Advisory Committee made just minor tweaks to its balance sheet this month, with slight increases to its global consumption and trade forecasts for cotton more than offsetting a minor increase in production, drawing its 2017-18 ending stocks peg down 110,000 MT to 16.55 MMT. This would be a 1.3-MMT drop from 2016-17.
Brazil government: March beef exports near normal despite meat scandal... Brazilian fresh beef exports fell 2% in March from a year ago, according to trade ministry data, although a government official said the drop was not due to a scandal last month involving alleged corruption by sanitation inspectors. Brazilian beef exports totaled $404 million last month, the ministry said in a statement on Monday. Pork exports jumped 39% to $138 million while chicken exports rose 12% to $571 million. Export prices rose for all three types of meat between 10% and 44% on an annual basis, helping to compensate for an overall fall in shipment volumes in March, according to ministry data. The steepest volume drop was for beef, which slumped 11.3% to 98,200 tons last month in annual terms.
Beef trade and showlist numbers point to lower cash action... The boxed beef market got off to a disappointing start to the week, with Choice cuts falling 69 cents, Select rising $2.65 amid lackluster movement of 104 loads. In addition, showlist estimates are up a sharp 32,000 head this week, signaling last week’s showlist was not cleaned up. But a positive for the market is the disconnect between cash and futures prices. USDA reports that cash cattle traded at an average price of $127.38 last week, and April futures are nearly $8.00 below those price levels.
Cash hog market to remain under pressure... Packer demand for cash hogs is expected to remain limited today. While cutting margins are strong, pork plants are thought to be well bought ahead on slaughter needs and market-ready supplies remain plentiful. As a result, cash hog bids are expected to be generally steady to $1 lower across the Midwest again today.
Overnight demand news... South Korea bought around 65,000 MT of feed wheat in a private deal on Monday, likely from the Black Sea region. Japan is seeking a total of 120,507 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in its regular tender.
