Soybeans remain under pressure at week’s end... Corn futures are narrowly mixed as of 6:30 a.m. CT after a quiet overnight session. Soybeans are down 2 to 4 cents on followthrough selling, with the market likely headed for its fifth week of decline -- the longest losing streak in 30 months. SRW wheat futures are fractionally lower, while HRW and HRS wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher, while crude oil futures are posting moderate gains.
Another solid jobs report expected... Economists expect today’s March jobs report to show around 175,000 nonfarm payrolls were added last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.7%. Yesterday’s ADP data showed 263,000 private jobs were added in March, easily topping expectations and spurring talk that today’s report could do the same. Job growth has been impressive since the start of the year, which was one of the reasons the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at its March meeting.
Senate expected to clear Gorsuch as new Supreme Court justice today... President Donald Trump’s first nominee for the Supreme Court is set today to be confirmed by the Senate after Republicans changed Senate rules to allow for a simple majority vote, ending the filibuster option. Neil Gorsuch’s approval will restore the generally conservative majority that existed before Justice Antonin Scalia’s death last year.
Flooding a threat in Brazil and Argentina this weekend... Flooding will remain a concern for far southern Brazil and southern Paraguay Saturday through Tuesday, says World Weather Inc., which adds that heavy rains are expected for Rio Grande do Sul. It says this could cause some quality issues with the region’s bean crop, though it adds the crop “is not mature enough to suffer greatly.” The corn crop is expected to weather the wet conditions fairly well. Moderate to heavy rainfall is also expected Friday through Monday for much of Argentina’s main production areas, which could also lead to some flooding, the weather group says. But no major crop damage is anticipated.
Buenos Aires exchange says harvest advanced, despite rains... Farmers in Argentina have harvested 5.9% of their soybean crop as of Thursday, despite heavy rains and floods in western growing areas, reports the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. “Despite the rains that interrupted harvest ... the soy harvest is beginning to gain momentum,” the exchange detailed in its weekly crop report. It also says that just light rain is expected for western areas of the Buenos Aires province, which should allow excess water to drain. But the exchange notes low-lying areas will likely lose some acres. It estimates Argentina’s bean crop at 56.5 MMT.
Think tank doubles forecast for Chinese corn imports... China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) doubled its forecast for China’s corn imports in 2016-17 MMT from last month to 2 MMT. The think tank did so in response to bookings of nearly 600,000 MT of corn in March, as domestic corn prices climbed back above international ones. CNGOIC also raised its 2016-17 soybean import estimate 1.5 MMT to 86.5 MMT.
Russian wheat shipments down from year-ago... Russia exported roughly 3.207 MMT of wheat during the first two months of 2017, which was down 3788,600 MT from last year at this point. The rise in its currency has slowed shipments, plus Turkey, a major market for its wheat, has essentially banned wheat imports from the country. Russia’s deputy ag minister says the two countries will hold talks on the import restrictions in two weeks, adding that they are not logical.
French exports outside the EU running well below year-ago... Ninety percent of France’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent condition as of Monday, unchanged from week-ago and just slightly below 92% last year, according to FranceAgriMer. So far this marketing year France has exported 3.041 MMT of soft wheat outside the EU, which is a drop of 55% from the 2015-16 marketing year.
Boost in production expected to trim Pakistan’s cotton buys in 2017-18... Pakistan will likely produce an 8.5 million 480-lb. bale cotton crop in 2017-18, which would be a 10% surge from year-ago thanks to an uptick in acreage, according to a USDA ag attaché there. However, the post goes on to note that acreage is still historically low as farmers have shifted attention to sugarcane and increasingly to corn. Due to the increase in production, the attaché projects Pakistan will import 2.3 million bales of cotton in 2017-18, down 400,000 bales from its estimate for 2016-17. The post also points out that a Pakistani funding package aimed at expanding its textile sector cuts its cotton import tariff from 9% to 0%.
Cotton AWP moves lower... The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton will be 67.41 cents per pound, effective today, down from 68.03 cents per pound the prior week. This is lowest the AWP has been since it was at 66.59 cents per the week of March 3 and came after three out of the last four weeks have seen the AWP at 68 cents per pound or more.
Cash cattle negotiations stretch late into the week... Cattle futures enjoyed a break from the selling yesterday as traders recognize that futures’ wide discount to the cash market is likely overdone, especially with grilling season close at hand. We are still waiting for cash cattle trade to get underway in earnest. Yesterday, around 100 head changed hands in the Iowa/Minnesota market at $125 and nearly 1,000 head traded in Nebraska at $123.
Marked slowdown in pork movement... The pork cutout value slipped 95 cents yesterday and movement slowed to just 256.31 loads, delivering more negative news to the lean hog market. But while cash and product market action of late has given bulls little to get excited about, the downside has likely been overdone.
Overnight demand news... Algeria bought between 400,000 MT and 570,000 MT of wheat, with traders expecting the bulk of the grain to be sourced from the EU. Jordan purchased 50,000 MT of hard milling wheat from optional origins.
