USDA’s data confirms the U.S. cattle herd has now contracted for seven consecutive years. The Jan. 1 inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. at 87.730 million head is roughly 320,000 head fewer than the average pre-report guess. The U.S. cattle herd is down roughly 1.57 million head from year-ago and nearly 9.3 million head fewer than in 2007, when the contraction phase started. The calf crop also continues to contract. At 33.930 million head last year, the calf supply is nearly 350,000 head fewer than 2012.
Semiannual Cattle Inventory Report
| USDA
| Avg.
| Range
|
| % of year-ago | |||
All cattle & calves | 98 | 98.6 | 98.0-99.1 |
Annual calf crop | 99 | 97.9 | 97.7-98.1 |
Total Cows/heifers calved | 99 | 98.9 | 98.7-99.3 |
beef cows/heifers calved | 99 | 98.5 | 98.3-99.1 |
milk cows/heifers calved | 100 | 99.9 | 99.8-100.0 |
Heifers 500 lbs. and over | 98 | 99.0 | 97.9-99.6 |
Beef replacement heifers | 102 | 103.1 | 102.4-103.5 |
Milk replacement heifers | 100 | 100.3 | 98.9-101.1 |
Other heifers | 95 | 95.9 | 93.2-97.1 |
Steers 500 pounds and over | 97 | 98.4 | 97.3-99.6 |
Bulls 500 pounds and over | 99 | 99.0 | 98.4-99.7 |
Calves under 500 pounds | 96 | 97.9 | 97.0-99.1 |
Looking forward, cattle producers are rebuilding their beef herds, but at a slightly lower pace than was expected. Beef replacement heifers came in 2% above year-ago, while the trade expected a 3.1% increase. Most of the heifer retention was in the Central and Southern Plains. While there’s incentive to rebuild herds after the prolonged contraction, pasture conditions still aren’t back to where producers would like them to be. That’s likely the reason there wasn’t more heifer retention.
