Corn: Futures settled 3 3/4 to 4 1/4 cents higher through the December contract today. For the week, July corn futures firmed 4 1/4 cents, while the December contract advanced 3 1/2 cents. Flooding and saturated soils in the southern and eastern Corn Belt along with widespread cold temps prevented much planting progress this week. We anticipate corn planting will be in the low to mid-40% range as of Sunday compared to the norm of roughly half planted. Heading into the weekend, forecasts for the second half of next week aren’t as wet as previously feared.
Soybeans: Soybean futures favored the upside today, but the market pared gains heading into the close, resulting in a mixed finish. Old-crop contracts ended 1/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower, while new-crop futures posted gains around a penny. For the week, the market posted solid gains, with the November contract up 13 1/4 cents. Weather and its impact on planting will remain a major focal point, with USDA’s crop progress data on Monday providing additional insight on the likelihood of some acres shifting to soybeans.
Wheat: Spring wheat futures were the upside leader today, rising around 7 cents. HRW wheat ended around a nickel higher and SRW wheat settled 1 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher. After a volatile week of trade, the wheat complex still finished solidly above last Friday’s close. The July HRW wheat contract posted a 17-cent gain for the week. USDA will release its first survey-based winter wheat estimate on May 10, and the department is expected to have a tough time factoring in damage from last weekend’s storms.
Cotton: Cotton futures finished 62 to 114 points lower through the December contract today, with old-crop contracts leading losses. For the week, July cotton futures dropped 110 points, while the December contract slipped 50 points. USDA’s May 10 Supply & Demand Report will feature the first “official” look at the 2017-18 balance sheet that includes March planting intentions. With cotton plantings expected to be roughly 700,000 acres higher than USDA originally had plugged in for 2017-18, its new-crop carryover projection will also be higher and up sharply from the current year.
Cattle: Live cattle and feeder cattle futures closed sharply lower to limit down today. For Monday, trading limits will be expanded to $4.50 for live cattle and $6.75 for feeders. Despite today’s limit losses, June live cattle futures still finished $4.27 1/2 higher for the week. Late-week price action suggests a deeper pullback may be in the works for early next week. With futures well below where cash cattle traded this week, however, any selling will be corrective in nature.
Hogs: Lean hog futures extended their strong price rally this week, though the market wrapped up the week with a mixed close. The June contract surged $2.32 1/2 this week. Technical momentum is clearly on the side of market bulls, as prices extended their V-bottom rally this week. While nearby contract’s premium to the cash index is likely overly wide, the path of least resistance remains up for lean hog futures.
