Market Reports
Market analysts agree there are only a handful of factors that could slow down or stop the incredible rally in the cattle market.
Economists further breakdown USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report and Cattle Inventory Report that were released on Friday. The Cattle Inventory Report showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and a smaller calf crop, plus the Cattle on Feed Report confirmed continued tightening numbers on feed.
With tight supplies and a strong demand, cull cow prices continue to set records.
With large moves in both directions, fed cattle prices have been erratic for the past three weeks.
A disconnect with cash and futures market and discussions about New World screwworm and tariffs, along with macroeconomics brings some uncertainty.
Extension livestock economist James Mitchell summarizes the sharp increases in beef prices the first half of 2025.
The passing of the early summer seasonal high in fed cattle values came two weeks earlier than last year but was aligned with that of 2023.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are holding together despite lower cash trade, while grains are finally seeing a bounce in reaction to a China deal on rare earths.
Two studies illuminate food prices for the holiday barbecue season.
The Nebraska and Iowa/Minnesota reporting regions continue to lead the way with a trading range from $239 to $244/cwt.
Dr. Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist with Oklahoma State University, says the on feed number has been below year ago levels the last four months.
Live cattle futures continue to ignore the strength in spot cash trade with a sharp downside correction last Wednesday, extending into Thursday, pulling $5/cwt.
Fundamental supply and demand have taken control of spot fed cattle values over April Live Cattle futures lows.
Last week’s 5-area weighted average cash cattle price hit a new high at $216.32, up $3.56 from the previous record set March 21.
The fed cattle market was sharply higher last week with a $4.29/cwt. upward move.
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing followthrough buying and strength Monday morning as the S&P 500 continues to stabilize and recover after the tariff delays.
Embrace market volatility, and figure out how to use it to your advantage during this time of uncertainty, advises commodity broker Brad Kooima
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
The 2025 fed cattle harvest has run very close to a year ago with the full production weeks averaging 473,000 head, a 1,600-head increase over the same period last year.
Last week’s fed cattle trade was highlighted by sales late Friday that featured substantially higher prices as packer demand for spot market cattle pressed prices higher in all regions.
February report confirms cattle on feed, placements and marketing statistics all down.
Total beef cattle harvest last week was up 12,000 head from the prior week at 578,000 head, 6,000 head fewer than the same week last year.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle see buying interest after strong cash late last week. Corn tries to hold gains with soybeans seeing South American harvest pressure and concern about China’s 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says corn, wheat and hogs reacted negatively to the 25% tariffs being imposed on Canada and Mexico on March 4.
Total beef cattle harvest last week was slightly larger than the prior week at 563,000 head, an increase of 2,000 head.
The total U.S. feedlot inventory on Jan. 1, 2025 was 14.297 million head, including 2.474 million head in feedlots with capacity less than 1,000 head.
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures prices have been forced higher as Live Cattle contracts had been lagging negotiated values until recent days.
With no post-holiday wavering, all cattle and beef markets moved higher in the first half of January – setting new record price levels to start the new year.