Market Reports
Calf and feeder cattle prices have been much more active in the past three weeks with two market-moving events, including precipitation in the central states and the temporary closure of the southern border due to screwworms.
The latest Cattle on Feed report showed feedlot inventories on Nov. 1 were 11.99 million head, equal to one year ago. Heifer retention still affecting herd rebuilding.
Last week’s harvest averaged 100,000 with except of Veteran’s Day holiday. Feeder cattle demand elevated after widespread precipitation throughout much of the winter wheat grazing region.
Cattle harvest was down last week, but carcass weights remain record breaking. Q4 tends to be the period most prone to follow historical seasonal patterns for carcass cutout prices.
Heifers made up 39.7 percent of the total feedlot inventory on Oct. 1, up slightly from the 39.6 percent in July.
Market update for week of Oct. 23 and a look at how carcass weigh and ribeye sizes correlates..
Total beef production is down a scant 0.7 percent so far this year and may end the year equal to year ago levels. Despite this, wholesale and retail beef prices are higher thus far in 2024.
U.S. Meat Export Federation announces new records for volume and value for pork exports will be achieved in 2024. While not as strong, beef exports are holding their own, led by Mexico purchases.
Harvested fed steer and heifer head counts outpaced the same weeks in 2023, with 501K and 492K in the past two weeks.
Current supply metrics have boosted the value of Select carcasses as a reflection of less lean trim with lower cull cow volume. Fed cattle sector still finds highest return as carcass quality increases.
Cash markets found their footing following some positive news when HPAI testing of ground beef found no sign of the virus. Futures turned positive and cash cattle traded higher for the second consecutive week.
Similar to last year, packers have idled the harvest pace lower in an effort to keep prices in check. The strategy favors more late-week trading.
Cash cattle traded lower in all regions for the first time in more than a month, but futures prices rose Friday to the highest levels in nearly four months.
Calling the packers’ bluff, cattle feeders held out for higher bids and were rewarded with the highest prices in over three months.
Fed cattle broke through $180 barrier this week, establishing the highest prices since the week ending November 3 and cattle feeders continue to gaining leverage.
Bullish traders showed their hand at the CME pushing April LC to a three-month high and helping spur a solid rally in cash cattle markets. Inventory report confirms tight supplies will remain for the near future.
Packers came into the market last week ready to add inventory after winter storms disrupted harvest schedules the previous two weeks.
Negotiated cash trade finished the week in a standoff with few sales and little price movement. Feeders and packers both look to benefit from improving winter weather and pen conditions this week.
A mid-January deep-freeze failed to deliver any bounce to cattle markets as packers appear flush with formula and contracted inventories. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report fell within expectations.
Brutal winter weather disrupted cattle markets and significantly curtailed cattle harvest in western Kansas. Cash cattle trades were steady to lower while wholesale beef prices posted a significant rally.
After reaching a peak price in August, cull cow and bull prices moved higher to end the year on a positive note.
A year ago feeders were concerned about weathered cattle and tough pen conditions and how at times it would be the motivation for sellers to take the market. It’s eerie how not much has changed in that sense.
The beef market is set to rapidly adjust to changes in consumer buying habits. This removes demand pressure from ribs and tenderloins, realigning the contribution of those cuts to a smaller percentage of carcass value.
2023 was a lower year for all the grains as the market went through a commodity reset similar to 2013. What’s ahead for 2024?
The final week of 2023 found at least three bidders in the market in multiple regions.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, recaps a record year in the cattle market and discusses if new highs are possible in 2024.
Feedyards saw higher cash cattle bids for the second consecutive week as the market closed the year on an upswing. Futures prices finished the week lower.
Volatility contributed to a strong basis early last week and cash traders benefitted by waiting until late week to sell cattle.
Cattle prices were weaker on the week with volatility in the futures markets and the season’s first cold spell on the way. Wholesale beef prices traded higher seasonally.
Fed cattle trade posted gains last week, but the rally was not incentivized by wholesale beef prices, but rather pushed by limited supplies of ready cattle.