As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.
Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.
In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.
Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.
December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.
Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.
Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.
When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.
Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:
- Barley, 35%
- Corn, 54%
- Cotton, 18%
- Durum wheat, 70%
- Peanut, 29%
- Rice, 15%
- Sorghum, 31%
- Soybean, 47%
- Spring wheat, 33%
- Sugarbeet, 48%
- Sunflower, 78%
- Winter wheat, 27%
While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.
Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.
Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.
“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”
Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:
- Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
- In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.
Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.
Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!
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