The cattle industry is closely watching availability as we transition into the spring and summer months.
In a recent issue of “In the Cattle Markets,” Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Federation economist, discussed cattle availability and where market conditions could be headed as the industry moves into spring and eventually the summer grilling season when seasonal demand for beef typically peaks.
As of March 1, 2026, the total number of cattle on feed is estimated at 11.55 million head. While this is up slightly from last month and down slightly from the same time period as last year, specific trends in placements and marketings suggest a shift in the supply chain:
- Placements: 1.61 million head (up 4% from 2025).
- Marketings: 1.52 million head (down 7% from 2025).
- The Trend: Placements have outpaced marketings in five of the last six months, indicating a growing volume of cattle being prepared for the peak summer demand.
“While marketings have been consistently lower than last year, marking fewer numbers of fed cattle available, it’s important to note that placements have outpaced marketings of cattle in five of the last six months,” he says. “This means more cattle are being placed on feed than are being marketed for beef. This should lead to more cattle being available for beef production during the next several months when grilling demand ramps up.”
Beef Demand and the “Grilling Season” Surge
Memorial Day is considered the unofficial start of grilling season, which typically brings peak seasonal demand for beef. March and April usually bring peak demand for other proteins such as ham and lamb, while beef demand slows.
“This year, demand for beef has risen over the last several weeks, pulling prices higher at a much faster pace than in past years,” Nelson says. “Since January, the Choice beef cutout value has increased by $50.14/cwt. or 13%, from $349.97/cwt. on Jan. 2, 2026, to $400.11/cwt. on March 20, 2026. This is 25% higher than 2025 and has many analysts questioning if the strong demand from grilling season will pull beef prices even higher this summer.”
Josh Maples, associate professor of agriculture economics at Mississippi State University, says in a recent “Southern Ag Today” article, “The Select cutout has also surged and is at levels only surpassed by May 2020. The gap between the Choice and Select cutout has been narrow during the first few months of 2026, indicating there has not been much of a premium for Choice cattle over Select.”
He adds boxed beef values tend to build gradually through the first quarter before accelerating in the spring and reaching a seasonal peak ahead of summer grilling season.
“In 2026, the cutout has surged earlier in the year as cyclical market fundamentals are outweighing typical seasonality,” he explains. “Cattle supplies and beef supplies are tight. When supplies are tight, wholesale prices tend to respond quickly. Additionally, buyers may be pulling some purchases forward due to expectations of tight supplies and even higher prices later this spring.”
Increases in the rib and loin primal values since the start of the year are key contributors to the overall cutout value increase.
Maples explains in 2025, the Rib value ran up sharply from March to April, while the Loin value increased from March to June. This year, both primal values have been on a strong uptrend since mid-January.
“For producers, strong early-year boxed beef prices are supportive of fed cattle markets,” he summarizes. “Strong demand and tight supplies are supporting beef values in 2026.”
Economic Headwinds: Recession Risks
While cattle supplies are slow to rebuild, consumer demand can shift rapidly.
“Cattle supplies will take years to rebuild, but demand can change more quickly,” Nelson says. “Events such as a recession could be a threat to the strong demand that has supported beef prices over the last couple of years. Continued strong demand is key to maintaining a strong cattle market in the months to come. If demand begins to fall for any reason, especially during grilling season, beef prices will also begin to fall along with the cutout value. When the cutout falls, the packer has to buy cattle at a lower price, which leads to lower prices at the farm gate.”
As we move toward the summer months, the balance between tight cattle supplies and consumer willingness to pay record prices will define the profitability of the 2026 grilling season.
Your Next Reads:
What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?
High Cattle Prices Driven Not Just by Supply, but Strong Demand
