Total China meat supply in 2022 is expected at 79 million tons, revised up 7% from the prior forecast and again surpassing total meat supplies before the emergence of African swine fever (ASF), according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service report on Jan. 12.
Driving the higher estimate is a large upward revision to pork production, which is now expected to grow for a second consecutive year.
Although hog prices in China remain below record levels seen over the last few years, they have improved since bottoming out in the fall. Analysts expect smaller producers will struggle in the current price environment; however, large operations will try to cover the high fixed costs associated with rapid expansion and modernization as long they can cover their variable costs, at least in the short term.
2022 beginning sow inventories in China are expected to be above year-ago levels. Productivity is also rising as less efficient sows are culled, which should support market hog availability, particularly in the first half of the year.
Trends towards continued consolidation will provide incentives for large Chinese operations to keep raising and marketing pigs – assuming the sector can effectively manage endemic ASF.
Plentiful supplies of domestic pork will weigh on import demand, causing 2022 pork imports to be lowered 12% from the prior forecast, USDA said in the report. 2022 imports remain elevated by historical standards, despite being 5% lower year-over-year. Overall, pork supplies are expected to reach 53.7 million tons in 2022 as higher production more than offsets weaker imports.
Here are a few highlights from the report:
Pork
• 2022 global pork production is revised up 5% from October to 109.9 million tons on higher production in China, itself up 13% from the prior forecast to 49.5 million tons (+ 1 percent year-over-year).
• Global pork exports in 2022 are estimated at 12.3 million tons, 3% below the prior forecast, on weaker demand from top importer China. Lower China imports more than offset higher demand from Japan (+2%) and South Korea (+3%) where economic recovery and greater pork availability on international markets will support trade. Mexico imports are also estimated 4% higher than the prior forecast as pent-up consumer demand and higher remittances from the United States keep trade robust.
Beef
• Global beef production for 2022 is raised from October at 58.2 million tons.
• Global beef exports for 2022 are up 1% at 12.0 million tons as gains in Argentina, Australia and Brazil more than offset small declines in the EU and Japan. Global imports are unchanged.
Chicken Meat
• Global chicken meat production for 2022 is forecast at 100.8 million tons, virtually unchanged from October.
• Global chicken meat exports for 2022 are raised 1% to 13.4 million tons.
More from Farm Journal’s PORK:
Hog Futures Slump Following Reports of Processing Bottlenecks
U.S. Meat Production Slows as Omicron Hits Staff and Inspectors
India’s 1.3 Billion People Hold Big Opportunity for U.S. Pork
