USDA released the January Cattle on Feed report on Friday, Jan. 23. These monthly reports estimate on-feed inventories for feedlots with capacity over 1,000 head, which represents more than 80% of total on-feed inventory in the U.S. As of Jan. 1, total on-feed inventory was estimated at 11.45 million head, which was down more than 3% from Jan. 1, 2025.
Low domestic cattle inventory, combined with the ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, continue to keep cattle supplies tight. On-feed inventory has been running below year-ago levels since fall of 2024, and this was the largest year-over-year decline since that time.
Placements were the headliner of the report, and this has largely been the case for the last year. The number of cattle placed on feed during December of 2025 was down by more than 5% compared to December of 2024. This was largely anticipated, and the placement number came in at the upper end of a very wide range of pre-report estimates, but the number is still significant.
We were not importing live cattle from Mexico in December of 2024, so the 5% decrease is from a low baseline the previous year. December marketings were up 1.7% year-over-year, which was very close to pre-report estimates.
Nebraska continues to be the state with the largest number of cattle on feed, while Texas would be second. This shift has occurred due to the continued ban on cattle imports from Mexico.
Friday’s report also included an estimate of the steer/heifer breakdown. The number of heifers on feed provides an indication of heifer retention, so analysts have been watching this number closely. In Friday’s report, both steers and heifers on feed were down roughly 3% from January 2025. As a percentage of total on-feed inventory, heifers accounted for 38.7%. This is about 0.6% higher than Oct. 1 and virtually unchanged from last January. This suggests relatively low levels of heifer retention at present.
More will be known about heifer retention and many other trends when USDA releases the January cattle inventory report on January 30. During 2025, beef cow slaughter was down by more than 500,000 head. For that reason alone, a small increase in beef cow numbers would seem likely. And while heifer retention does not appear to be occurring at a large scale, a small increase in the number of heifers held for beef cow replacement would not be surprising. Still, the pace of beef cow herd expansion in the coming years is likely to be slower than past cattle cycles.
Your Next Read: Cattle Rally on Higher Cash, Trumping COF: Tightest Numbers Ahead
