The debate at the U.S.-Mexico border continues as the fear of New World screwworm (NWS) increases with warmer spring temperatures while the supplies of feeder cattle tighten.
The border has been closed since July 9. A temporary phased reopening that began July 7 with the Douglas, Ariz., port was short-lived with a case reported July 8, 370 miles from the border, which was 160 miles northward of the sterile fly dispersal grid at that time.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke with media during the Texas Southwest Cattle Raisers Convention about a potential phased reopening of the border.
“We’re looking at it every single day,” she says. “The closest the screwworm has gotten to the Arizona border is about 800 miles. So, we’re currently evaluating a potential phased-in strategy. We obviously will not be opening all four ports anytime soon, but there is a realistic conversation that’s currently happening that’s looking at that port that’s about 800 miles from the closest case. More to come on that. I expect an announcement either way on that, perhaps within the next two to four weeks.”
A USDA spokesperson confirmed her statement, explaining, “USDA will resume livestock imports at such a time when we determine the risk of NWS introduction into the U.S. can be adequately mitigated. To make the determination, USDA is evaluating a combination of factors including our science-based import protocol, the animal health status of individual Mexican states, and the degree to which Mexico’s national agriculture authority has made progress in implementing our recommendations.”
Where is the Closest Case?
A USDA spokesperson told Drovers the active case closest to the U.S. was confirmed March 17 in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas and is 146 miles away from the border. According to the Screwworm.gov website, there are 1,433 active cases of NWS in Mexico as of April 1.
“There was an isolated case in Nuevo Leon last September that was about 70 miles away from the border,” a USDA spokesperson confirms. “There have not been any cases within 100 miles of the border since then.”
Dan Basse, AgResource Co. president, says he is growing increasingly concerned as the threat of NWS edges closer to the U.S. border.
“I’m becoming more pessimistic as each day goes by,” Basse says. “Seasonally, the fly moves northward, and it’s not that far away.”
Biosecurity Versus Supply Pressures
According to Jim Wiesemeyer, host of the “Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives” podcast and a Washington analyst, the reopening debate is being driven by two competing dynamics:
- Biosecurity risk remains the primary constraint.
- Market pressures are intensifying.
“Tight U.S. feeder cattle supplies and operational strain on Southwest feedyards are increasing pressure on USDA to restore imports from Mexico, a key supply source for the region,” Wiesemeyer explains.
Basse estimates roughly 120,000 head per month that would typically move into the U.S. are currently being held in Mexico, further tightening already constrained supplies.
“I don’t know how APHIS [USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service] can open the border today,” he says.
Rollins says keeping the borders closed has been instrumental in keeping NWS out of the U.S.
“I think they [Mexico’s government] would have been good partners, whether we close the ports or not, but I know for sure they have been much better partners because those ports have been closed,” Rollins says.
Adis Dijab, DVM and veterinary services associate deputy administrator for APHIS, says Moore Air Base is the hub of the U.S. expansion for sterile NWS flies. He says the dispersal facility is operational and the production plant is scheduled to be built and fully online by 2027 — aiming for 300 million sterile flies per week. On Jan. 30, USDA announced a shift in its 100 million-per-week sterile fly dispersal efforts to reinforce coverage along the U.S.-Mexico border.
What Would a Phased Reopening Mean for U.S. Beef Producers?
“I suspect the futures market will react pretty significantly,” says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “But the fact of the matter is this is not that big a deal. It’s not going to cause an immediate impact of any kind at this point in time.”
David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist for livestock and food product marketing, agrees, saying reopening the border will not fundamentally make a huge difference for the U.S. producer.
“There is not really a flood of animals waiting to come this way,” he explains. “While cattle would be imported it should not have a huge effect on the market. A little more supplies and a little impact on price. It should take a while for imports to ramp up. Phased means a slow reopening, so that implies a slow or small effect on numbers and prices.”
Peel predicts cattle flow from Mexico would trickle, not surge, especially going into the summer heat period when movements usually tail off.
Other constraints that Peel says will limit cattle crossing the border include:
- Understaffing and loss of USDA APHIS personnel at ports could be a bottleneck.
- Prior abrupt closures have eroded Mexican producers’ confidence, so they’re unlikely to rush cattle north without proof the border will stay open.
- Mexico is investing and adapting internally, which could permanently change traditional movement patterns and how much and how quickly cattle flow to the U.S. even after reopening.
“Long term, if we return eventually to normal things, then, you know, that does add some supply back into our feeder cattle supplies,” Peel says. “But that’s all going to take months. I mean, it really doesn’t happen much this year. ... We’re probably talking about next year.”
Don Close, senior animal protein analyst at Terrain Ag, says the biggest impact will be psychological.
“Because the futures market is an anticipatory market, and [if] we ever have any border opening, the market’s going to perceive more numbers to come down the road, so that’s where that psychological impact could come from,” he explains.
He predicts the real story will be a North American cattle shortage, not just a U.S. shortage, due to drought also experienced in Mexico.
The positive impact, according to Anderson, will be for Southwestern U.S. feeders.
He says more supplies of cattle would eventually help the packer keep shifts going to help some plants survive, but when Mexican cattle come across the border, they are “a long way off from finishing.” It will not be immediate relief for the packer.
“I don’t think it’s an immediate impact except in the futures market, because it always reacts immediately and then figures it out and recorrects later,” Anderson says. “It would help boost beef supplies for the consumer — many months down the road. I don’t think this helps enough to offset the increase in gas and diesel prices and the longer-term impact of these costs on our production and marketing system.”
No Need to Panic
Should beef producers be concerned about a potential phased reopening of U.S.-Mexico border?
“I would say this is not something to panic about,” Anderson summarizes. “There are a lot of positives for cattle producers, especially in the Southwest, and the truckers, feed stores, markets and others who are part of the cattle industry in the Southwest.”
He emphasizes, “I think one real benefit is the inspection and surveillance that happens at the border that is a real positive to have a better idea of what is going on.”
Close’s message to producers is that a border reopening would likely cause a short-term, mostly psychological softening in feeder prices, but it won’t solve the broader North American cattle shortage, so any relief will be limited and temporary.
The message from industry analysts is not to panic, but to steady the ship, manage risk and prepare for NWS.
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