Farm Journal’s recent producer survey results, coupled with expert analysis, point to several dynamics shaping the beef industry in 2025 and beyond. Here’s what four industry insiders have to say about what is driving today’s profitability, how increased market prices are impacting the future and what’s next for beef producers:
- Ken Odde, South Dakota commercial cow-calf producer
- Matt Perrier, Kansas Angus seedstock producer
- Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness senior beef industry analyst
- Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek Trading Inc.
- Zimmerman on demand: “Demand is as high today as it has been since 1983. The highs in demand were in the late ‘70s. We’re within layup range of getting there, and I never thought that would have been possible 10 years ago.”
- Zimmerman on beef quality: “We’re producing 5 lb. of Prime beef today to 1 lb. Select. Go back to 2005, and we were producing 1.2 to 1.3 lb. of Prime and Choice beef for every 1 lb. Select. The consumer loves the quality of beef they’re getting from U.S. beef producers today.”
- Zimmerman on the complexity of herd expansion: “ Those operations that are big enough to take that financial risk ... they’re going to want to make sure they can rebuild strategically. The beef industry has always been built by risk takers, but I think as producer demographics have gotten older, as you get older, you tend to take more calculated risk.”
Zimmerman on cow numbers: “I think this is going to be a slower rebuild because of the amount of volatility we’ve seen in the cattle markets over the last 10 years, in addition to how the pricing patterns reacted to the last rebuild.”
- Odde on calf prices: “Two years ago, we were selling calves off the ranch for maybe $1,600 to $1,800 a head. Those same calves today are worth $2,200 to $2,400 a head.”
- Odde on the beef industry’s impact: “This beef industry today — especially the cow-calf sector — is pumping a lot of dollars into rural America, and this is not something we have seen for a long, long time.”
Odde on young people returning to agriculture: “Making money in these operations is what’s really key to attracting young people back to the operations.
- Perrier on bull demand: “As we see fewer cows, we don’t necessarily see less demand for bulls.”
- Perrier on how genomics and DNA testing have revolutionized cattle breeding: “For around $50 a head, we are able to take a DNA sample that can tell us an immense amount about that animal’s genetics, both on the commercial and seedstock end of things, allowing for more precise selection and reduced risk.”
- Perrier on genetic investment: “It’s more important than ever to make sure you’re investing those profits in things like genetics that can pay back.”
- Perrier on consumer demand: “That consumer dollar that comes into the beef industry trickles down all the way through, and that’s where the new source of wealth is in our ranches.”
Perrier on industry outlook: “It’s time as producers to recognize the fact we have a product that people want to buy. We have profitability in the industry, and we need to treat it as a business.”
- Varilek on cattle traders’ mindset: “Cattle traders are nervous. We all know the end is going to come eventually, so we kind of fall into that trap.”
- Varilek on herd rebuilding: “We’ve had moisture from Texas all the way to North Dakota this year, so we had some grass. We didn’t have the drought issues to worry about. There is some heifer retention that’s happening. I think it’s been a little bit slower, but it is there. Couple that with the cow slaughter being well behind year-ago levels — talking 37% week over week —there’s a lot less cows going to slaughter all year long. We’re trying to keep them. This market has sustained good prices for a long time. We know we’re tight on supplies. We’re trying to rebuild safely.”
- Varilek’s three signs for a turning market: “You’ve got the basis, is one. We’re losing some of that. We’re still positive. The bull spreads have not really performed as of late. They have all summer — they’ve been great. But maybe lacking here. And then just the market itself. So, those are the three signs.”
The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.
For more insights to the report, as well as producer and economist perspectives, watch the State of the Beef Industry Webinar exclusive on Farm Journal TV.
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