Cows Come To Town: Data Says Herd Shrinking
Beef cow slaughter during the first quarter of 2021 was the largest since 2010, and that follows the fourth quarter of 2020 which was the largest Q4 slaughter since 2011. The large cow slaughter culling suggests the downward trajectory of the cattle cycle has not shifted, says the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).
LMIC notes heifer slaughter is trending higher in the first quarter, too. During March, heifer slaughter was the highest during a month since 2019. Heifer slaughter data suggests that herd turnover is not freshening the herd with younger cows but is shrinking.
The mix of heifers as a percent of the cattle on feed total remains higher, LMIC says, similar to rates at the top of the last cattle cycle. The latest cattle on feed report indicated heifers were 37.7% of the on feed mix. Heifers on feed varies considerably state to state.
In Arizona, California, and Minnesota the ratio is under 20%. Colorado, Idaho, Washington, and Kansas have more than 40% of heifers on feed. Typically, the ratio of heifers on feed must decline in order to retain enough heifers to increase the size of the cow herd. The trajectory of the percent of heifers on feed declined substantially from 2012 to 2015, but we have yet to see that pattern emerge in the present data.
LMIC estimates cow-calf returns will improve in 2021 and 2022 but may not be high enough to increase beef cow inventory. In the last two cattle cycles returns per head, have been in excess of $100 per head to change the direction of the cow herd, LMIC said.
