Last week’s federally inspected cattle harvest made a massive downward shift to 526,000 head. The prior week’s total at 542,000 head was the largest weekly harvest total since February and one of the largest of the year. Packer profitability in the spot market has returned and is a trend switch-worthy of notation after extensive losses over many months. This generated the big uptick in processing volume two weeks ago.
Despite a strong Labor Day price increase in wholesale cutout values, fed cattle prices continued to slip by a small margin last week. The $218/cwt. average was nearly $2/cwt. lower than the week prior as the bearish market sentiment would not allow October Live Cattle futures to break higher than $214/cwt. since Aug. 25.
The Labor Day cutout price rally was welcome and anticipated by the market. Despite rhetoric that “beef is too high,” latest cutout values are 6% to 7% cheaper than a year ago. Moving past Labor Day, the overwhelming historical trend is for price weakness in the magnitude of at least 8% from now through Oct. 1. Two of the last three years featured fed cattle values building strength during September. However, current fundamentals argue against the uptrend with a strong cash basis and implied cutout weakness.
As well, fed cattle in the North have become a discount to the South, typically indicating ample supplies of market-ready cattle in the most active and competitive cash trading regions of Iowa and Nebraska. Fed cattle market risk currently appears to the downside until a fourth quarter rally develops. Yet this Tuesday’s Live Cattle futures posted early strength in an upward correction.
Aside from continued strength for the rib primal, most beef cuts fell to lower values last week. The Labor Day buying push was replaced with an expectation of softer spot market demand. This was the case for everything but the rib, which is trading near 52-week highs. This suggests end-users are likely looking at calendars and planning ahead with rib purchases to be sent to “deep chill” ahead of anticipatory fourth-quarter demand upticks.
Ends and Thin Meats Rise Over Time
The contribution of each beef cut to total carcass value is best assessed on a weighted price basis. This matters, given the vast differences in scale weight that exist among the seven primals. Of course, price-per-pound differences show the same general relationships, but tend to exaggerate the importance of price shifts for the lighter-weight cuts. For instance, the flank contributes just 3.4% of carcass weight; therefore, even strong price fluctuations don’t create much measurable change in the flank’s share of total carcass value.
A look back at recent annual trends shows a subtle, but steady, redistribution of value across the beef carcass. Despite the fact that wholesale rib prices have recently neared record highs, the rib and loin primals have both given up incremental ground to end cuts and thin meats since 2021.
Several reasons might explain this repositioning of middle meats versus the others. To begin with, total beef inflation at the retail level has pushed the priciest middle meats beyond the comfort zone for many budget-conscious consumers. Logically, many of these consumers have opted to continue to eat beef regularly, but are choosing lower-priced cuts.
The chuck and round are heavy-hitters, comprising 29.6% and 22.3% of carcass weight, respectively. As their dollars-per-pound prices shift relative to the cutout value, the impact is noted. Together, they accounted for 39.7% of total CAB carcass value in 2021. The chuck’s share increased from 22.7% to 24.1% in 2025.
Chuck rolls and shoulder clods are sizeable chuck cuts, both of which have seen strong demand in 2025 and 2026. Added focus toward budget-friendly cuts from the chuck has been a driver. As well, the “discovery,” if you will, by end-users of the steak alternatives has improved utilization and popularity of chuck items. We must also not forget the price of tallow and 50% lean trim relative to the cutout price, adding to increased value contribution of certain primals. The chuck yields 6% to 9% fat trim, yet the loin also contributes plenty of weight in 50% lean trim (8% to 10%) and fat (22%).
The round’s cutout share similarly rose from 17% in 2021 to 18.6% last year. Not a huge leap, but an important contributional shift nonetheless. Price increases have been noted across the round cuts, but the leanest, such as eye of round and peeled knuckles, have been in sharper demand as wholesale 90% lean prices soared to upward of $4.50/lb last May. These recent gains in the round cutout share represent a return to this primal’s former position in the 18% to 20% range sustained from 2008 to 2014.
Among thin meats, briskets and plates have seen steady increases in the price-per-pound comparison as a share of the cutout price. However, as a source of weighted contribution they just can’t move the needle, as these two combine to contribute just 15.5% of carcass weight. Rising demand, along with tighter piece-count supplies during restricted fed cattle harvest, have been a winning story for briskets and plates. Despite higher price tags, their lighter weights have only improved their carcass value contribution from 8% to 9.9% since 2008. Simultaneously, their comparative price per pound (average of both) moved from 65% of the cutout price to 83%, by contrast.
Utilization shifts are driven by several factors, including improved product knowledge by end-users, leading to increased focus on lower-cost, high-satisfaction cuts. Shifts in fed cattle and cull cow harvest supplies influence cyclic dynamics, driving the value of both fat and lean items from fed cattle for use in ground beef.
