Few things in cattle market trends are entirely predictable but the fact that carcass weights peak in November is as close to a sure bet as one could identify.
Rib and tenderloins are pricing near their annual highs, but a look at annual price trends across the beef carcass shows increasing contributions to CAB premiums from both ends of the carcass.
Cash fed cattle prices have increased 4.8% during the month of November in the past five years, yet carcass cutout values have begun the month in a bit of defensive pattern.
Shifting market dynamics are most succinctly summarized through two factors, fewer cattle and higher prices, that will further entrench themselves in near term trends.
Procurement decisions by feedyards are heavily influenced by vaccination status and current health condition. An “Industry Insights” report from CattleFax and Angus Media provides useful insight on current trends.
While the market average trading range has narrowed from the recent historically wide range, the total market average in the six-state region has priced in a fairly tight range in the low to middle $180’s since June.
America’s shrinking cow herd has generated sharp packer interest for the smaller pool of cows aggressively culled in drought regions leading to record high cutter cow carcass values.
In the second quarter of 2023, national average carcass quality grades held up especially well considering that carcass weights were 15 to 20 lb. lighter than a year ago in the first quarter.
